Investment advisory agency: Taiwan stocks need more bullish drivers to regain the 47,000 level

Investment advisory institutions said that the overall market is insufficiently funded, and if it wants to get back on track in the future, it will need more Taiwanese dividend drivers. (Photo by reporter Wang Menglun)

[Reporter Wang Menglun/Taipei Report] Looking forward to the market outlook for the Taiwan stock market, investment consultants said that the focus of observation will be on whether the 47,000 level and volume can be recovered. It is struggling with the 47,000 moving average in the historical plateau area. After falling below last Friday, it depends on whether it can successfully recover this week and whether the volume can be enlarged. According to the legal person, if the volume continues to shrink to 600 billion yuan, it shows that the overall market is insufficient in funds. If it wants to get back to the level in the future, it will need more Taiwan stock dividends to drive it.

SinoPac Investment Consulting said that this week, the Taiwan stock index once reached the highest point in the range, but the offensive failed to continue. The challenge to the previous high failed, and then the buying became more conservative. It began to slowly decline along the daily line in the middle. On Friday, it jumped short and "closed lower". The volume and energy have shrunk day by day since the peak on Monday. This is the main reason for the recent weakness of the Taiwan stock market. This has also made the rotation speed of stocks faster and the differentiation signal more obvious.

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In particular, the retracements of the OTC index and the small- and medium-sized stock index were deeper than those of the weighted index, indicating that the inability of this wave of upside comes from insufficient funds, let alone the inability to support small and medium-sized stocks.

In terms of capital trends, foreign capital sales in the centralized market exceeded 5.104 billion yuan, investment trust purchases exceeded 14.016 billion yuan, self-operated hedging sales exceeded 48.702 billion yuan, and the three major legal persons collectively sold more than 39.79 billion yuan. Financing increased by 10.003 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 591.898 billion yuan; securities lending decreased by 21,713, with a balance of 197,447 securities.

Investment advisory institutions pointed out that the trend of CPI in August will affect the pressure of the FOMC to raise interest rates. On the one hand, there is still a "high probability" that this time it will remain unchanged, while the probability of raising interest rates in Q4 is constantly rising. Although non-farm payrolls in recent months have far exceeded expectations, the annual wage growth rate has slowed down. Good economic conditions do not constitute a necessary reason for raising interest rates; on the other hand, the U.S. CPI in August The announcement of 9/11 will determine the overall market's view of inflation expectations, especially the price component that is susceptible to rising oil prices, and whether the impact has begun to be long-term.

"The overall profits of Taiwanese stocks continue to be revised upward, and the price-to-earnings ratio range is still at a low level." SinoPac Investment Consulting pointed out that as the expected EPS continues to rise, and as many AI-related stocks reported better-than-expected revenue in August, and subsequent upward revisions, it is foreseeable that the P/E ratio will continue to be revised downwards. The P/E ratio has now reached a relatively low point after the Taiwan stock market fell back. Therefore, during the consolidation stage, you can start to enter strong stocks and make mid- and long-term plans.

Analysts suggest that as the core AI supply chain continues to embrace, more IC-packaging and testing related groups can be allocated to cope with the challenges and profit increases brought by the increasing difficulty of packaging in the future. Then, stocks that are relatively insensitive to yield rates, have low base periods and low price-to-earning ratios can be deployed. The market index range next week is expected to be 45,000 points to 48,000 points.

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