Does Jiang Wanan still have an "invisible iron ticket" that can save the election? Writer: The real invisible voters are young people

The 2026 Taipei mayoral election has entered the countdown, and the election between current mayor Chiang Wanan and Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang continues to attract attention. In this regard, writer Zhao Xiaohui pointed out that some green camp supporters are worried that the Kuomintang still holds a large number of "invisible iron votes" that have not expressed their opinions online, which may be concentrated on the voting day, allowing Chiang Wanan to be re-elected smoothly. However, he believes that most of these traditional blue camp supporters have been reflected in existing polls. What is really worthy of observation are young voters and middle voters who are difficult to reach in city surveys.

Zhao Xiaohui stated in a Facebook PO post that the Kuomintang has long run local organizations in Taipei City, including the Huang Fuxing System, district civil service agencies, district chiefs and military village support networks, etc., and has relatively stable supporters and mobilization channels. These voters often participate in local activities and maintain contact with party headquarters, so they should not be considered invisible voters that polls cannot capture simply because they use social media less.

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Zhao Xiaohui pointed out that although some middle-aged and elderly voters do not use social platforms such as Threads and Facebook, they may be more accustomed to answering home phones. Therefore, polls that use local telephone as the main interview method may not miss this group of traditional supporters. Whether they are adequately represented in the sample still depends on the actual sampling, interview situation and statistical weighting method.

In response to the TVBS poll that showed support for Jiang Wanan at 49% and Shen Boyang at 41%, Zhao Xiaohui believes that Jiang Wanan's support figures should already cover a considerable proportion of traditional blue voters, and it is not appropriate to regard this group of supporters as an additional source of votes that will suddenly appear on voting day. However, poll support is not the same as the final vote share, and the actual results will still be affected by changes in voting intention and voter structure.

Zhao Xiaohui continued that what is more noteworthy in the later stages of the election campaign are young and middle-aged voters who do not have home phones and mainly use mobile phones, as well as intermediate voters who usually rarely express their opinions publicly. The former may be more difficult to reach through purely local surveys, while the latter may be affected by the candidate's political opinions, exclusive interviews and campaign issues, and the target of support is decided at the final stage.

Zhao Xiaohui believes that if Shen Boyang hopes to further narrow the gap, in addition to continuing to propose specific municipal policies, he must also win the approval of middle voters and increase the voting willingness of young people. She also proposed the goal of raising the voting rate of relevant ethnic groups to 75%, believing that there would be a chance to change the results of the Taipei mayoral election.

However, this judgment is an analysis of vote structure and mobilization effects, not an election prediction confirmed by polls. There is still some time before the vote. Whether both parties can consolidate existing supporters and win over undecided voters, as well as how the actual turnout changes, are still important factors affecting the election.