
印度總理莫迪和哈薩克總統托卡葉夫近日分別在上海合作組織峰會和西伯利亞會晤時,當面對俄羅斯總統普廷批評俄烏戰爭,要求結束衝突。華爾街日報指出,這反映戰爭外溢效應加深,俄國夥伴國家因經濟與安全壓力開始轉變立場。印度承受西方壓力停止購買俄油,哈薩克則因黑海衝突導致裏海石油管線出口受阻。專家認為,俄羅斯專注烏克蘭戰場,使其中亞與南高加索國家有信心增加對莫斯科的批評而不擔心報復。
AI-generated summary
俄羅斯於2022年2月發動對烏克蘭的全面入侵,戰爭已進入第五年。印度作為俄羅斯的重要石油供應國,曾增加對俄原油的購買;哈薩克則依賴裏海石油管線將原油出口至黑海港口。上海合作組織是由中國和俄羅斯領導的多邊安全與經濟組織,成員包括印度、哈薩克等國。
俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭戰爭進入第5年,近日印度總理莫迪(Narendra Modi)和哈薩克總統托卡葉夫(Kassym-Jomart Tokayev),都當著俄羅斯總統普廷的面,針對這場戰爭說出重話。華爾街日報指出,這反映出戰爭的衝擊外溢,正使得一些俄國夥伴國家的態度轉變。
莫迪8月底在吉爾吉斯舉行的上海合作組織峰會場邊,當面告訴普廷,現在是從「無止境的戰爭,走向結束戰爭的時候」。托卡葉夫7月底在西伯利亞與普廷會面時也直言,他聽到許多國家在質疑,為何俄羅斯依然持續這場戰爭,甚至表示,「對許多人、包括我們在內,都不完全清楚這場衝突的性質」。
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華爾街日報4日報導指出,雖然莫迪過去也曾批評戰事,但是這次格外直接有力。這些批評時值俄國國內、外都愈加受戰爭衝擊,俄國夥伴也已受到戰爭影響。印度受西方施壓,要求停止向俄國購買石油;7月一艘商船在黑海遭俄國飛彈攻擊,造成4名印度船員喪生。戰火波及黑海,也導致哈薩克仰賴的裏海石油管線(CPC)出口原油受到干擾。
詹姆士.馬丁禁止核武擴散研究中心(CNS)歐亞事務主任諾特(Hanna Notte)指出,「對於(戰事)升高正產生外溢效應,波及其他國家和其經濟的擔憂或許正在增加」。
莫迪前述言論被視為在向西方釋放訊號。印度金德爾全球大學國際事務學院院長喬利亞(Sreeram Chaulia)表示,印度希望他們的西方夥伴知道,即使印度或許持續向俄國採購更多石油或者更多武器,但是,「最終,我們並不支持俄國正在進行的這場戰爭」。
前蘇聯國家的批評,也凸顯俄羅斯在中亞與南高加索地區的影響力正在減弱,而美國企業已在哈薩克、亞美尼亞等國大舉投資,給予這些國家俄羅斯之外的替代選擇。諾特表示,「現在有一種看法認為,俄國忙於應付烏克蘭戰爭,因此讓這些國家有信心,可升高對莫斯科批評力道,而不需付出代價」。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
印度將在未來幾個月內進一步減少對俄羅斯原油的採購量
Likely · Within months
哈薩克將尋求多元化能源出口路線以降低對黑海通道的依賴
Possible · Within months

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