Data shows that the volume of oil flowing from the Middle East has almost returned to pre-war levels, although Iran continues to impose restrictions on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Seven months after the US-Israeli war with Iran, which led to the virtual closure of the vital waterway, Kpler, a company specializing in maritime information, said that the daily flow of oil from the Middle East reached, in the last week of September, 92 percent of its basic level before the war.
Analysts believe that the recovery of oil flows is the result of three main factors: escorting ships with American military assistance, using shuttle tankers across the strait to transport oil to different ships, and bypassing the strait using pipelines.
But some experts doubted the possibility of continuing these measures, given the risks of an escalation in Iranian attacks or a change in US policy.
According to Kpler, about 40 percent of the total oil exported from the region in September bypassed the strait and exited via land pipelines to ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, up from 17 percent before the war. But Iranian oil exports stopped completely after the re-imposition of the US naval blockade in July.
The US military has supported ships as they pass through the Strait of Hormuz since at least mid-June, and US Navy data shows that the number of ships receiving assistance from US forces rose by a third in September compared to August.
Martin Kelly, senior intelligence analyst at security firm EOS Risk Group, told the BBC's fact-finding unit that US support mainly comes in the form of "ship air support", including by issuing warnings and intercepting threats coming from drones, missiles or boats.
But ships heading toward the US-recommended southern route of the strait near the coast of Oman, rather than requesting permission to use Iran's northern route, are still being targeted. According to the ACLED Observatory, which specializes in data on locations and events of armed conflicts, September witnessed the largest number of successful Iranian attacks on commercial ships since March.
Navin Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, said oil markets “do not have confidence that we will remain in this status quo,” due to the risk of further Iranian escalation and the potential impact of the US midterm elections.
According to Kpler, most of the oil currently crossing the strait is transported through a “shuttle system” of more than 60 large oil tankers moving back and forth. More than 70 percent of the crude oil that passed through the Strait in August was transferred from these “shuttle tankers” to other ships in the Gulf of Oman, Kpler reported.
The BBC fact-finding team analyzed satellite images that showed that ship-to-ship transfers, which appear to be more protected from Iranian attacks, took place off the coast of the port city of Sohar in Oman. But Martin Kelly said that there is “a question about how long these ships can last,” especially as attacks on them continue.
Photographs taken on September 24 show six pairs of ships anchored or side by side near the port. According to Kpler, more than four million barrels of oil per day were transferred on average from one ship to another in the Gulf of Oman during the week preceding September 30. In total, an average of 12 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait during this period, compared to the pre-war level of 17 million barrels.
Oil-exporting countries in the Gulf responded to Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz by exporting more crude oil overland via pipelines. According to Kpler, just under 20 percent of crude oil from the region now exits through ports on the Red Sea at the end of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, which records exports of more than four million barrels per day.
Three weeks after the attack on the pipeline, which was accused of being carried out by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Saudi Arabia is now exporting oil through the pipeline “at maximum capacity,” according to Kpler. Kpler data shows that nearly a quarter of the total crude oil flowing from the region is now transported via pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz to terminals along the Gulf of Oman, particularly in the city of Fujairah in the Emirates.
Kpler's Naveen Das said this increased use of pipelines would likely become the "new normal" because "it seems highly unlikely that we will live in a world in which the Gulf states and Iran return to relatively harmonious relations." Kpler data shows that Iranian oil exports fell to almost zero following the re-imposition of the US blockade in mid-July, compared to exports of 1.7 million barrels per day before the war began.
