Taiwan’s election is a sensitive moment. U.S. think tank warns: China is conducting unannounced large-scale military exercises

In three weeks, voting will take place in Taiwan's nine-in-one election. At this sensitive moment, two major think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for War Studies (ISW), released a joint report "China and Taiwan Situation Update" yesterday, warning that the Chinese Communist Party may be conducting an unannounced large-scale military exercise to simulate encirclement and isolation of Taiwan. Moreover, the scale of this exercise exceeds that of the People's Liberation Army's Taiwan-wide military exercise last year, and it simultaneously mobilizes troops from the eastern, northern and southern theaters, indicating that it is trying to integrate the surface combat forces of the three coastal theaters into a single high-sea combat mission.

The report mentioned that since 2022, most of the PLA’s large-scale exercises targeting Taiwan have been concentrated in the eastern theater. The emergence of major surface combat groups from three different theaters deployed outside the first island chain may represent the People's Liberation Army's attempt to coordinate the main surface combat vessels of the three coastal theaters to conduct far-sea operations. The deployment of the People's Liberation Army Navy's main combat ships in the Western Pacific between Guam and Taiwan, as well as the closer encirclement of Taiwan by joint forces of the People's Liberation Army Navy and China Coast Guard, follow the pattern of the People's Liberation Army's previous exercises.

Secretary-General of the National Security Council Joseph Wu confirmed on the social platform

It is also pointed out that there have been several recent exercises in the Indo-Pacific region in which the United States has joined forces with other allied countries, so it cannot be ruled out that they are a form of countermeasure against the United States.

The report pointed out that China did not announce a large-scale military exercise this time, which is different from past practice. The purpose may be to create the illusion that the People's Liberation Army can isolate Taiwan. China typically announces and publicizes the names of large-scale military exercises targeting Taiwan, as has been the case for the past four such exercises.

The report pointed out that China may try to direct its military presence around Taiwan and the Western Pacific into routine and normalcy rather than special circumstances. China may also be intent on demonstrating its ability to transition quickly from peacetime to combat operations, thereby shortening the time it would take for adversaries to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.

The report assesses that China's move is aimed at weakening Taiwanese people's confidence in its own defense capabilities and the United States' willingness to assist. The PLA's recent actions around Taiwan and throughout the Western Pacific are likely to have a dual purpose: on the one hand, to prepare for true isolation operations, and on the other hand, to create an information effect that undermines Taiwan's confidence in its own defense capabilities and the ability of its allies and partners to support Taiwan.