Shen Youzhong: If U.S.-China relations are unstable, Xi Jinping may take more aggressive measures against Taiwan

Shen Youzhong, deputy chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, pointed out yesterday (6th) that in the face of next year's 21st National Congress, Chinese leader Xi Jinping's top priority is to strive for internal and external stability and remove obstacles to his re-election. If instability occurs in U.S.-China relations again, tough actions may be taken externally to shift the focus. They may not hesitate to incite nationalism and increase military deterrence, gray belt intrusion, economic coercion, international isolation, and more aggressive measures such as "ruling before rule" against Taiwan.

Shen Youzhong attended the "2026 U.S. Midterm Elections - Congressional Reorganization and Political Evolution" symposium hosted by the Land Research Center of Tunghai University yesterday. He pointed out that the bipartisan stance of supporting Taiwan in the U.S. Congress has always been highly consistent and will not change due to this U.S. midterm election. Disagreements between the United States and China on trade, technology, and geopolitics are also structural issues. Although some uncertainty may be injected after the U.S. midterm elections, the nature of competition between the two countries will not change.

Shen Youzhong said that some parts of the CCP have not reacted too much to the U.S. midterm elections, showing that they are still trying to maintain a seemingly stable relationship with the United States in order to allow Xi Jinping to successfully start his fourth term at the 21st National Congress next year. The recently concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the CCP Central Committee confirmed that as many as 34 Central Committee members have been punished, including many high-ranking generals and even former confidants of Xi himself, highlighting that Xi Jinping has positioned the main security threats within the party and the military.

Shen Youzhong analyzed that in the face of next year's "21st National Congress", Xi's top priority is to strive for internal and external stability and remove obstacles to his re-election. However, he is now facing internal governance risks such as purges within the party, economic decline and intensified social conflicts. If instability occurs in U.S.-China relations again, tough actions may be taken externally to shift the focus, and they may not hesitate to incite nationalism and increase military deterrence, gray belt intrusion, economic coercion, international isolation, and more aggressive measures such as "ruling before rule" against Taiwan. At present, local elections in our country have entered a heated period, and Chinese people should also be more cautious when facing the issues of election interference and cross-border suppression by the CCP.

Shen Youzhong emphasized that the midterm elections in the United States and the Fifth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China have concluded, but local elections in Taiwan are still ongoing. The government will respond prudently to changes in various external situations, maintain the stability of Taiwan-US relations, and also pay attention to the development of the political situation of the Chinese Communist Party. He also called on the people to have different support targets during the election process, but more importantly, they should unite to protect the country's sovereignty and the free and democratic way of life.