(Central News Agency reporter Lin Shangying, Berlin, 20th) Germany will hold three consecutive state parliamentary elections in September. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading the polls in the two eastern states. Among them, the support rate in Sassen-Anhalt has exceeded 40%. Whether it can obtain more than half of the seats in the state parliamentary elections and control the state government for the first time is the focus of attention.
Germany will hold three consecutive state parliamentary elections in September, among which Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are both located in the former East German region, and the capital Berlin will also be re-elected.
Among the three elections, the one that attracted the most attention was Sassen-Anhalt, which has a population of about 2.1 million. According to the latest polls from various sources, the AfD's support rate in the state is approximately 41%, significantly ahead of the 24% of the state's former ruling party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Compared with the 2021 state parliament election, the AfD only won 20.8% in Sassen-Anhalt, and its current poll support has almost doubled; the CDU, which won by 37.1% in the last term, lost more than 10 percentage points.
There is a 5% vote threshold for political parties in German elections. If multiple small parties fail to cross the threshold, even if the AfD does not reach 50% of the vote, it may still obtain more than half of the seats in the state parliament because a large number of votes are not included in the seat allocation. At that time, the Alternative for Africa party will be able to obtain state government power alone without looking for a coalition partner.
The Alternative for Germany jumped to the second largest party after the German parliamentary election last year. However, since its establishment, it has never dominated the state government in any German state.
If you gain more than half of the seats in Sassen-Anhalt, you will not only take control of the state government for the first time, but also break the political "Brandmauer" (Brandmauer) of Germany's mainstream political parties that have long refused to cooperate with the AfD and exclude the far right from the government, making this election an important indicator for observing whether the German political sector continues to shift to the right.
In 2023, the Sassen-Anhalt State Constitutional Protection Authority identified the AfD state party as a "confirmed right-wing extremist force" and believed that some of its claims violated constitutional principles such as human dignity, democracy and the rule of law.
At the federal level, Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) also classified the entire AfD party as a "confirmed right-wing extremist force" last year. The AfD subsequently filed for legal relief, and the Cologne Administrative Court ruled in February this year that the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution was temporarily not allowed to identify and deal with the AfD under this classification until the end of the main litigation proceedings.
The AfD may gain power in a state government for the first time, further triggering discussions on national security in German political circles. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in July this year that if the AfD takes power in Sassen-Anhalt, it must ensure that confidential information involving the Bundeswehr will not flow through the state government to the AfD, which has close ties with Russia, and that the relevant confidential information sharing mechanisms need to be reviewed.
In addition to Sassen-Anhalt, the Alternative for Africa also remains in the lead in the state of Mecklenburg-Volpomen, which held state parliamentary elections on September 20. According to polls, the Alternative for Alternative Party has a support rate of more than 35%. Berlin, the capital, is highly divided, with the political spectrum from left to right, with five parties having support rates in the double digits.
