Copper prices fell slightly on Thursday, but remained near their highest levels in two weeks, supported by tight actual supplies in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal, while expectations of a further US interest rate hike limited gains.
The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell by 0.36 percent to $14,425 per ton by 07:00 GMT, after hitting its highest level in two weeks at $14,517 on Wednesday. The benchmark index in London also recorded its highest closing in two weeks at $14,477.50 per ton on the same day.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most traded copper contract fell by 0.42 percent to close at 109,380 yuan ($16,408.64) per ton, according to Reuters.
Supplies remained tight in China, reflected by the sharp rise in copper price premiums. Yangshan's copper premium, an indicator of Chinese consumer demand for imports, had jumped to $205 a ton as of Wednesday, its highest level in more than a decade.
The domestic price premium also recovered from a rapid decline following inventory rebuilds ahead of the National Day holiday, rising to 1,085 yuan per ton as of Wednesday.
Weekly inventory data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed inventories monitored by the exchange fell by more than 26 percent last week, after rising for two consecutive weeks.
However, the prospect of another US interest rate hike remained a potential pressure on copper prices, despite tight physical supplies in China.
The US Federal Reserve had left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, in a vote of 10 votes to two, as two members of the Council preferred to raise the interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Although the central bank raised its estimates of US economic growth, it maintained its concerns about inflation continuing at high levels, while markets continued to price in the possibility of implementing another increase in interest rates during December.
In other metal markets on the London Stock Exchange, aluminum fell by 0.18 percent, zinc fell by 0.10 percent, while lead rose by 0.37 percent, nickel rose by 0.54 percent, and tin fell by 0.33 percent.
On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aluminum fell by 0.88 percent, lead fell by 1.10 percent, tin by 1.56 percent, while zinc rose by 0.04 percent, and nickel rose by 0.19 percent.
The French company Total Energies recorded a sharp rise in its profits during the third quarter of 2026, exceeding analysts’ expectations, supported by the record performance of the refining and chemicals sector, in light of the rise in oil prices and the tightening of supplies of petroleum products globally against the backdrop of the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The company announced on Thursday that its adjusted net income reached $9.1 billion during the period from July to September, an increase of 127 percent compared to about $4 billion in the same period last year. The results were higher than the average expectations of 12 analysts surveyed by the London Stock Exchange Group, amounting to $8.3 billion.
The refining and chemicals sector achieved record results, as its net income doubled to $3.6 billion, benefiting from the scarcity of global supplies of petroleum products following the outbreak of the war with Iran, and the resulting rise in refining margins to historic levels.
The company's CEO, Patrick Pouyannet, said that increasing refining volumes by about 10 percent enabled Total Energies to take full advantage of the historically high refining margins in Europe and global markets, adding that oil trading activities recorded a strong performance similar to the levels it achieved during the previous two quarters.
The improvement extended to the liquefied natural gas sector, whose income rose to $1.9 billion, supported by an increase in average gas prices of about 20 percent, in addition to the strong performance of LNG and gas trading activities in an emerging market.
Regarding shareholder returns, the company confirmed its plans to repurchase shares worth $2.5 billion during the fourth quarter of 2026, and announced its intention to purchase additional shares of the same value during the first quarter of 2027, at the upper limit of the indicative range that it specified last month.
The results reflect energy companies benefiting from higher refining margins and tight supplies, at a time when geopolitical tensions continue to impact oil, gas and refined products markets.
The Indian rupee fell to its lowest level in two weeks, Thursday, under pressure from continued demand for the dollar and cash outflows likely linked to the repayment of outstanding debts abroad, while Indian government bonds rose supported by a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a decline in oil prices.
The rupee recorded 95.3675 against the dollar, down 0.15 percent from the previous session's close at 95.22, while the yield on the benchmark Indian bond due in 2036, with an interest rate of 6.94 percent, fell by 3 basis points to 7.4091 percent by midday. Bond yields move inversely with their prices.
Traders said limited interventions from the Reserve Bank of India helped limit rupee losses, at a time when the currency's weakness limited bond gains, along with investor caution ahead of New Delhi's issuance of bonds worth 330 billion rupees ($3.47 billion) on Friday, according to Reuters.
The rupee had risen earlier this month to its highest level in more than a month, at 94.32 against the dollar, supported by a series of regulatory measures and large inflows linked to a huge initial public offering in the local market, but its gains have begun to fade since then.
A trader at a foreign bank said that demand for the dollar is still strong, and it does not appear that it will decline soon, pointing to an increase in purchases of the US currency from clients in multiple sectors, including electronics manufacturing and jewelry trading.
In the non-deliverable futures market, a Singapore-based hedge fund trader indicated weak interest in selling the dollar against the rupee, adding that central bank interventions are the main factor pushing the exchange rate down.
The continued pressure on the rupee has increased its dependence on interventions by the Reserve Bank of India to prevent sharp movements in the exchange rate, and has also made it less responsive to global factors. Although the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged supported most Asian currencies, the rupee did not benefit from this.
Declining oil and US bond yields support Indian bonds
Support for Indian bonds came from a decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, a leading indicator of global borrowing costs, by 5 basis points to 4.99 percent during Asian trading. Brent crude futures also fell by 1 percent to $114 a barrel, with concerns about supply disruption eased by hopes for progress in the peace talks.
The ten-year Indian bond yield fell below the key technical level of 7.40 percent during early trading, before rising again. Since the beginning of the week, the yield has moved between 7.41 and 7.49 percent, while traders covered their positions after it failed to exceed the 7.5 percent level.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as was widely expected, but indicated a continued rise in inflation, which kept expectations of an interest rate hike in December intact.
Emkay Global Financial Services said in a note that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh explained that raising interest rates in September had begun to tighten financial and credit conditions, without describing general financial conditions as tight.
The company added that this reinforces the Reserve Bank of India's approach to responding to economic changes, and supports the justification for gradual increases in interest rates during the coming period. She pointed out that high US interest rates, high oil prices, and weak natural flows of foreign currencies are factors that call for a higher risk premium on Indian assets, which limits the ability of the Indian Central Bank to ignore the repercussions of global monetary tightening.
The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate and tightened its monetary policy direction earlier this month.
In the overnight index swaps market, trading was mixed, as the weakness of the rupee offset the optimism resulting from the decline in US Treasury bond yields. The one-year swap rate rose slightly to 6.6850 percent, the two-year swap rate settled at 6.74 percent, while the five-year swap rate fell by one basis point to 6.8675 percent.
Analysts at Emkay Global said that the stability of the spot exchange rate, driven by regulatory interventions and restrictions, does not necessarily mean an improvement in basic confidence in the currency, stressing that the sustainability of the rupee’s recovery will depend on whether investors reconsider their expectations in the medium term, rather than simply adjusting trading and hedging strategies.
