Changes in the U.S. midterm elections; scholars estimate that the Taiwan Protection Act and the "Six Guarantees" will be passed into law

The Republican Party lost its majority in the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections. Faced with a new political situation of "domestic and opposition", the National Policy Research Institute held a symposium on "The Post-2026 U.S. Midterm Election Situation and Impact on Taiwan" today (5th), focusing on the development of the triangular relationship between Taiwan, the United States, and China. Scholars pointed out that the structural contradictions in the strategic competition between the United States and China and the cross-party consensus on resisting China and supporting Taiwan remain unchanged. With the Democratic Party regaining control of the House and Senate, Congress will form a strong constraint on the White House. It is expected that the new Congress will accelerate the promotion of the Taiwan Protection Act, the Blue Sky Act, and the Taiwan Solidarity Act, and is even expected to formally legislate Taiwan's "Six Assurances", so that Taiwan-US relations will improve overall.

Su Ziyun, director of the Defense Strategy and Resources Institute at the National Defense Security Institute, analyzed that although U.S. defense diplomacy and arms sales are initiated by the executive power, Congress only has the power to review, but Congress can produce coercive effects through legislation, or override the presidential veto as a check and balance. He predicts that the new Congress may re-introduce the "Taiwan Protection Act" to force the US government to take action if Taiwan is subject to economic coercion, gray zone operations or military attacks; there is also the "Blue Sky Act" that authorizes the implementation of the rights of Taiwan's "Major Non-NATO Allies" (MNNA) to deepen military-industrial cooperation; and the "Taiwan Solidarity Act" that gives Taiwan a more reasonable diplomatic space.

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Fan Shiping, a professor at the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University, also echoed that after the Democratic Party won a landslide victory in Trump’s first term in 2018, Congress introduced the Taiwan Travel Act and other Taiwan-friendly bills, and Trump chose to sign them all at the time. He specifically pointed out that Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the German Marshall Fund, and Ro Khanna, the top Democratic member of the House of Representatives Special Committee on U.S.-China Strategic Competition, had mentioned that if the Democratic Party wins a majority in the House and Senate, it is very likely to push for the "six guarantees" proposed by President Reagan in 1982 to be formally incorporated into law.

He said that since Trump mentioned discussing arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping in February and May this year, and the US$14 billion arms sales case to Taiwan that had been put on hold for a year has aroused concern in Congress, and the "Six Guarantees" have been included in the party platforms of both parties, in the future, it is just a step away from being a non-legal document and it is expected to officially become the cornerstone of the same legal level as the Taiwan Relations Act.

Dong Liwen, CEO of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, bluntly stated that the results of the U.S. midterm elections will be beneficial to Taiwan regardless of victory or defeat, because U.S.-China relations are subject to structural and strategic constraints, and the U.S.'s cross-party fundamentals of being tough on China remain unchanged. He cited the Trump-Xi meeting at the end of September this year as an example. Democratic senators proposed a bill to strengthen export controls on advanced chips to China. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Republican Senate Armed Services Committee, also publicly opposed high-level receptions for Xi Jinping. During the meeting, more than 60 cross-party senators and representatives publicly supported it.

He believes that Trump will not admit defeat when he loses the election. In order to regain face in the last two years of power, he will give it a try in diplomacy when domestic affairs are hindered. Chinese think tanks also judge that Trump may speed up playing the Taiwan card and selling arms to Taiwan. Taiwan-US diplomatic, political, military, economic and technological relations will all improve.

Guo Yuren, deputy director of the Academy of National Policy, pointed out that the Republican Party has collapsed in the House of Representatives this time, and the "Trumpization of the Republican Party" is almost certain to end, and the party will usher in a large-scale power reorganization; while many atypical political elites in the Democratic Party, such as missionaries and farmers, were unexpectedly elected to the new House of Representatives, Taiwan must step up efforts to establish relations. He also mentioned that the upcoming ASEAN, Quad Security Dialogue (Quad), U.S.-Japan-ROK summit and the U.S.-China summit during the APEC summit in mid-November will quickly reveal how Trump responds diplomatically to the collapse of the midterm election.

However, Lin Wencheng, a distinguished professor at the Institute of China and the Asia-Pacific at Sun Yat-sen University and a former Supervisory Committee member, reminded that although the increase in congressional checks and balances has allowed Taiwan to breathe a little, the crisis has not been completely resolved. He analyzed that Trump is the most ideal American president in history for China because he does not care about human rights, praises Xi Jinping, is willing to trade, and has alienated many people internationally.

He pointed out that since the U.S.-China trade truce agreement will expire in January next year, Trump may seek to reach a deal with China to purchase agricultural products in order to boost the economy. Taiwan must still pay close attention to whether Trump will compromise on the Taiwan issue at the next two Sino-U.S. summits. In addition, 2028 coincides with Xi Jinping's fourth re-election and Trump's last year in office. It will be a relatively dangerous year for Taiwan and requires high vigilance.

In his closing speech, Director Tian Hongmao of the Academy of National Policy pointed out that it is rumored that the number of employees of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) may increase significantly from the current approximately 500 to 1,000 in the future, and that US Department of Defense personnel will also be stationed. This shows that the United States attaches great importance to Taiwan's strategic position in the first island chain and its connection with the high-tech supply chain will not change.