The future of the US Secretary of Defense is in the balance - What are the chances of success in the efforts to remove US Defense Secretary Hegseth?

The initiative, led by Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, centers on Pete Hegseth's role in managing the war on Iran, a war that Republican leaders hold responsible for their heavy losses in last week's midterm elections. Massey accuses the Trump administration of the unconstitutionality of this war, which he started without the approval of Congress. Indeed, military operations continued despite Congress’s request to the Pentagon to stop hostilities.

During the reading of the articles of impeachment on the House floor, Massey said that Hegseth "abused" his authority as Secretary of Defense, noting that he "intentionally executed and issued illegal orders" by launching attacks on Iran. The representative added that Hegseth "will continue to pose a threat to the Constitution if he is allowed to remain in office."

A fragile majority amid clear division

A reporter asked Hegseth if he had enough Republican support in the House to block Massie's move, and Hegseth tried to downplay the question, saying, "We're not worried about that."

The small Republican majority in the House of Representatives cannot afford the defection of only a few of its members, if all Democrats support this measure. House Democratic leadership also supports the impeachment effort.

The articles of impeachment have been presented, making a vote inevitable. The only exception is for Republicans to refer the resolution to the House Judiciary Committee for an investigation, or to vote to freeze the matter. If the move passes, it will move to the Senate, which will then have to either hold a trial or attempt to dismiss the charges. However, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) may seek to delay referring the file to the upper chamber until the new Congress takes office in January. This measure does not appear to have any chance of success in the Republican-controlled Senate.

It is worth noting that the Democrats will enjoy a clear majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate when they take power at the beginning of next year.

The White House confronts the impeachment attempt

The Donald Trump administration urged members of the Republican Party to vote against the draft resolution, and in this regard distributed documents containing a set of arguments to support its position. These documents attempt to prove that Hegseth's role in the Iran war does not constitute a reason for his removal from office, warning that taking such action may discourage future defense ministers from carrying out the president's orders. President Donald Trump defended Hegseth's leadership performance in the Pentagon and the entire Iran war, despite his admission that the conflict caused gasoline prices to rise, which is unpopular with Americans. "What did Hegseth do? He won the war," Trump said.

It is noteworthy that Massie is one of the most prominent Republican opponents of the war, and he lost the primary elections earlier this year after Trump gave his support to his competitor. Hegseth had participated in the election campaign alongside that competitor, an act that represents a departure from the norms followed for a sitting defense minister. In a video posted on social media, Hegseth described Rep. Massie as an "embittered former congressman," calling the impeachment effort a "travesty."

Increasing critical voices in both parties

In recent weeks, Republican representatives have shown increasing criticism towards Hegseth, and their dissatisfaction has worsened after the party lost both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. In an interview with NewsNation, Republican Representative James Comer of Kentucky, a staunch Trump ally, declined to support the Secretary of Defense, stating that Republicans "have no idea what the strategy toward Iran will lead to."

For their part, Democrats indicated their intention to support efforts to remove Hegseth from his position. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, said, “This national nightmare of Pete Hegseth could end this week.”

Uncertainty about voting against Hegseth

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth calls himself the "Minister of War", as part of his efforts to re-present the image of the army, which he described as being very weak and "influenced by progressive ideas" when he took office last year. Now, with expectations that an impeachment vote will be held in the House of Representatives, there may be a common denominator between him and a real war minister. Sources in Congress indicate that the resolution may obtain the simple majority needed to pass it in the House of Representatives, although Republicans still control it until the beginning of next year. But conviction is unlikely in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is needed, while Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats.