“More Chinese cards at the U.S.-China summit… Relations expected to remain stable.”

Singapore DBS economist... Claimed that “China is ahead in 66 of 77 core technologies”

(Shanghai = Yonhap News) Correspondent Cha Byeong-seop = With the leaders of the United States and China scheduled to meet two more times within the year, there is speculation that the U.S.-China relationship will remain largely stable for the next year as China has more negotiating cards.

According to Yonhap Newspaper, a Chinese media outlet, on the 7th (local time), Dr. Jimo, chief economist for China and Hong Kong at DBS, a Singapore-based financial institution, observed at an online event announcing the 'China 2040 Outlook Report' the previous day, saying, "China currently has more cards than the United States in key areas."

He cited key materials, including rare earths, as China's 'card' and explained that rare earths are important in the supply chain of US defense, electronics, and eco-friendly technologies, and that it will be very difficult for the US to find substitutes in the short term.

He then predicted that the fact that China is a major buyer of American agricultural products could influence American voters, and also cited the fact that China is still a major holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.

As of July, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds were $618 billion, the lowest since August 2008. It is explained that if China starts selling U.S. Treasury bonds amid rising U.S. Treasury yields, this could increase market pressure.

Dr. Ji also mentioned China's high-tech manufacturing base and said, "If there is a disruption in these supply chains, there will be a real impact on American industries that rely on Chinese raw materials."

Regarding core technologies, China was ahead of the United States in only 3 out of 63 areas between 2003 and 2007, but between 2020 and 2025, it was significantly ahead in 66 out of 74 areas, including energy and environment, advanced materials and manufacturing, advanced information and communication technology, and artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Dr. Ji estimates that there is also a risk of monopoly.

The leaders of the U.S. and China previously confirmed at their meeting last month that they plan to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in Shenzhen, China in November and the G20 summit to be held in Miami, Florida, USA in December.

Meanwhile, DBS predicted in its China 2040 outlook report that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the next 15 years will decline to an average of 3% per year due to weakening capital accumulation and a decrease in the size of the labor force.

Chinese authorities have a goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020, which contrasts with government scholars who believe that GDP should grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% over the next 15 years to achieve this.

Dr. Ji said that considering the aging population, the slowdown in the real estate market, and the development of the AI ​​and robot industries, China's average annual growth rate of GDP for the next 15 years is expected to be around 2-4%, adding, "If aging and the slowdown in the real estate market have a negative impact, it could be 2%."

He also said that if the impact of technological development is significant, it could reach 4%, which is not far from the Chinese government's target. He added that China plans to integrate AI into 90% of economic activities during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).