[Correspondent’s Perspective] Blue Tide, and Backlash

It was the eve of the Brazilian presidential election amidst unpredictable weather that repeatedly rained and cleared. Flavio Bolsonaro's victory seemed like a foregone conclusion. The Brazilian media accepted the defeat of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a fait accompli. Among the Lula supporters I met, not many were confident of victory. Lula's victory was accepted as 'ought' and 'desired', but the supporters who calculated his victory using calculation methods were not noticed.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro supporters seemed overflowing with confidence. They quietly responded to the interview, hiding their smiles. It was not easy to see the shadow of defeat in their firm eyes. Brazil's largest city, São Paulo, has long had a strong progressive tendency, and as a result, most of those interviewed were Lula supporters, but it was possible to predict victory or defeat just by the air of anxiety they gave off.

'Oh, Bolsonaro will win this election.'

My poor 'taking skills', which only picks out wrong answers, missed the correct answer this time. Lula achieved a comeback victory. After falling behind in the beginning, they went up in the middle and never lost the win after that. It was an almost complete victory.

After the election, various analyzes poured in. The general assessment was that digging into the public sentiment of young people through social media (SNS) was effective. Representative Andre Zanones, who reorganized the election strategy through a WhatsApp channel called 'Lula's Army', suddenly emerged as a hero. Overseas progressives, including those in France and Spain, began benchmarking the techniques used by 'Lula's army', saying that Brazil's election strategy should be adopted.

As I read this news, the thought crossed my mind, ‘Isn’t social media promotional activity basic?’ Following Lula's strategy did not seem very convincing because it seemed like a remake of an old song. Even if it contributed to the election victory, the question remains whether it was only a local factor.

Rather, changes in the political landscape around the world were noticeable. Zoran Mamdani was elected mayor of New York and Elif Eralf was elected mayor of Berlin. They are all progressive politicians with extreme left leanings. Looking back, the advancement of progressive and left-wing politicians in major cities around the world was a kind of precursor phenomenon. Lula's victory and Donald Trump's defeat soon followed. Even the mayor of Los Angeles (LA), one of America's two largest cities along with New York, fell to a radical progressive candidate. There is a clear trend in which voters who feel tired of right-wing-led politics are choosing change.

In particular, Lula's victory is expected to cause a crack in the political dynamics of Latin America, where the right-wing wind has been strong over the past few years. Even among Latin American countries that have responded sensitively to the political trends in the United States, there is a cautious possibility that weight will shift toward the left again. The re-election bid of President Javier Millais, known as the 'Trump of South America', in Argentina's presidential election to be held next year is facing difficulties due to the economic crisis.

It is a law of history that the moon waxes and wanes and waxes and wanes. There are countless examples of actions and reactions that occurred in the turbulent flow of history. The Gracchus brothers' reform, which attempted to prevent the expansion of the rich's agricultural land, ultimately failed, but it opened the way to imperialism by lowering the moral authority of the Roman Republic, which sided with the rich, and after the French Revolution, conservative politics symbolized by Metternich dominated all of Europe. In addition, after the fall of Hitler's fascism, Europe experienced a sharp leftward trend through the 1968 Revolution.

Like this, huge reactions against the existing system have always erupted on top of inequality, oppression, and the accumulated discontent of the grassroots.

The growing gap between rich and poor, the problem of rent rising to the point where most of a month's salary must be paid, fatigue from successive wars, and soaring prices. Right-wing forces in power around the world may be currently facing a backlash from public sentiment.