Russian experts had developed three possible scenarios on the eve of American voters heading to voting centers:
The first scenario: “A divided Congress,” which they saw as the most likely scenario, under which the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains under Republican control, or moves to the Democrats by a small margin. For Russia, this would have meant a “temporary relief,” because Congress and the White House were preoccupied with internal conflicts, which might hamper their respective initiatives and reduce Washington’s focus on foreign policy. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia - supported by Republicans and Democrats alike - will remain in place but only until January 2027, when the new Congress takes office.
This scenario suggested that if the Senate remained under Republican control, the president would have a strong opportunity to reach broad agreements with Russia on various issues.
The second scenario - which actually happened: Democrats took control of the Senate and House of Representatives, and experts described it as “the worst scenario for Russia.” Democrats will conduct investigations against Trump, obstruct his appointments, and escalate the rhetoric of tough sanctions. But this scenario ruled out the success of the Democrats in impeaching Trump, but for Russia this means fewer opportunities to conclude quick deals, and greater risks of imposing new punitive pressures.
The third scenario, which seemed preferable to the Kremlin but was dashed by the election results, was for Republicans to maintain comfortable control in the Senate. Russian experts believed that although it is “the best scenario for us, it does not constitute a breakthrough.” Trump will have more freedom, and deals with Russia will be possible. But the most important thing is that anti-Russian sentiment in Congress will not disappear, and any agreement will have to be imposed by force.
In fact, even before the vote, many Russian experts predicted that losing control of Congress would complicate Trump's foreign policy efforts, especially by affecting the development of relations with Russia and pressure on Ukraine. But on the other hand, experts believed that Trump would not make a major retreat in his foreign policy, which originally relied on his personal relationships and his own vision, as stated by Duma deputy and political scientist Alexander Asafov.
Trump continues his pivotal role abroad
Asafov expressed his conviction that Trump “will continue to make his own decisions.” However, I do not rule out that the pace of rebuilding relations will slow significantly; The American President will have to solve the problems within the United States,” indicating at the same time that the American President will actively resort to using his veto power to prevent Congress from obstructing his movements, even though this performance will multiply the internal problems in the United States.
Political scientist Anastasia Gafarova shares this opinion with Asafov; According to her analysis, the most important thing in relations with Russia will remain unchanged, which is reliance on personal relationships and the usual fluctuations. She added: “I believe that Trump will continue to adhere to his previous approach in the near future, and will seek to conclude deals, even within a tripartite framework with China.” The Russian political scientist explained that, “In general, and given the weakness of his domestic political powers, Trump is likely to attempt to achieve historic success in an area considered more closely linked to executive authority, which is foreign policy.”
In a related context, Gafarova added: “Trump will not abandon the idea of reviving the gas supply project (Nord Stream 2). And more generally about making profits from the fuel trade in Europe. There are also security issues in the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean...all of which require a dialogue with Russia, a dialogue that he will not abandon, even if the matter is not without emotional reactions. She added: “Congress will obstruct the existing agreements, and will hinder the implementation process. But in essence, the pro-Trump Congress did the same thing regarding Russia; So not much will change on the ground.”
About the Iranian war and its calculations
On the other hand, political analyst Alexander Leonov believed that Congress would constitute an additional deterrent to President Trump if he ignited a new round of war with Iran. According to the analyst, the resumption of hostilities is possible as a “desperate act on the part of the American President,” but the question is: Will he do so after the developments related to these results?
Hence, Leonov emphasized that “in principle, escalation is possible.” But the problem is that this war itself, for example, requires additional funding. Will Trump get this funding in this Congress? Let us remember what the Republicans said: If Trump continues to court Russia over the diesel fuel issue and other things, they will simply not vote for him.
Returning to analyst Yaroslav Kabakov, who believes that the Democrats’ victory will have negative effects on Russia in the short term and directly. Congress may take a tougher stance on sanctions and Ukraine; Therefore, there is no hope for a quick lifting of restrictions. He adds: “But there is no direct relationship between the Democrats’ victory and the tightening of sanctions.” Trump's position and willingness to reach an agreement on Ukraine will remain the deciding factor.
By extension, for Russian assets - according to Kabakov - the main danger, and at the same time the “most important opportunity”, does not lie in the elections, but in the subsequent negotiations between Washington and Moscow. If Trump accelerates negotiations after the elections, the impact of the geopolitical detente may outweigh the negative signal from the new Congress. The expert analyst concluded that if a consensus position is reached between the two parties to increase pressure on Russia, the Russian market will witness a new decline.
It is likely that communications will decline
In any case, the prevailing opinion among Russian analysts is that after the Democrats win the congressional elections, US contacts with Russia are likely to be limited. But on the other hand, while waiting for the official position in Ukraine to become clear, relief was evident in the comments of some experts. Despite expectations that the defeat of Republicans in Congress will provide a “temporary reprieve for Ukraine,” some comments believe that it will not save it completely.
Meanwhile, Russian circles seemed concerned that “most prominent Democrats consistently advocate providing aid to Ukraine, so Congress can begin to create the necessary conditions to support Ukraine.” However, quick steps should not be taken immediately; Even if Democrats decide to increase aid to Kiev, implementing these measures may take months, if not years. This is while Kyiv is in dire need of aid now. This was noted by expert Malik Dudakov, who wrote: “Of course, the Europeans and Ukrainians will now celebrate the Democratic Party’s election victory, but it is not at all certain that all aid will be fully restored any time soon.”
Finally, also in the context of expectations, Alexander Leonov, director of the Penta Center for Political Research, believed that after the Democrats’ victory in the congressional elections, it would be much easier to curb Trump’s desire for rapprochement with Russia.
He continued: “We can now discuss whether aid to Ukraine will resume, and its amount... However, the main result that can be clearly confirmed is that rapprochement with Russia will no longer be possible. Obviously, the chances of Putin, for example, discussing joint economic projects with Trump through (Kirill) Dmitriev will diminish, I think. Therefore, this approach will likely be scaled back.”According to Leonov, Congress may begin to pressure Russia on legislative initiatives in the wake of prolonged Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector and the killing of civilians.
