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Back伊朗支持的葉門青年運動與伊拉克民兵協調攻擊沙國石油設施
伊朗支持的葉門青年運動與伊拉克民兵協調攻擊沙國石油設施
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自由时报27 minutes agoDefense3 min readChina

伊朗支持的葉門青年運動與伊拉克民兵協調攻擊沙國石油設施

兩股伊朗盟友在伊拉克設立共同作戰室,顯示區域代理人合作層次提升

Quick Look

區域官員透露,葉門青年運動協助伊拉克親伊朗民兵策劃針對沙烏地阿拉伯的無人機攻擊。此合作顯示伊朗代理人協調層次提升,威脅沙國石油運輸路線,並升高區域安全風險。

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Why It Matters

伊朗長期在區域內扶植代理人武裝團體。隨著哈瑪斯與真主黨在加薩戰爭中受創,德黑蘭正調整其區域威脅策略。

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區域官員披露,伊朗支持的葉門叛軍「青年運動」(Houthis),曾在今年7月協助伊拉克親伊朗民兵,規畫並執行針對沙烏地阿拉伯石油設施發動無人機群攻擊,顯示出兩股原本分別活躍於葉門和伊拉克的伊朗盟友,協調行動已提升到新層次。

伊朗過去數十年在以色列周邊扶植的武裝團體巴勒斯坦「哈瑪斯」(Hamas)和黎巴嫩「真主黨」(Hezbollah),在加薩戰爭中受到重創,現在德黑蘭把重心轉向利用青年運動及伊拉克民兵,威脅沙國和其他美國在波斯灣盟友,升高美國與以色列聯合對伊朗開戰的代價。

美聯社9日報導,兩名沙國官員引述情報,以及一名伊拉克高階安全官員透露,青年運動不僅協助策劃7月攻擊,其代表甚至進駐伊拉克民兵所設的作戰室。沙國與美國事後聯手空襲伊拉克民兵,除了造成至少20名伊拉克民兵、6名伊朗顧問喪生,另有至少1名青年運動人員死亡,這名青年運動人士當時也在伊拉克,先前並未被披露。

一名美軍官員表示,華府對青年運動在伊拉克活動,以及從當地對沙國等其他國家發動攻擊的能力感到憂慮。不過,伊拉克民兵「人民動員部隊」(PMF)兩名官員,否認參與7月對沙國那場攻擊,也否認青年運動在其庇護下活動。人民動員是由多個民兵組織組成的聯盟,現已被編入伊拉克安全部隊,旗下組織包括一些伊朗支持、有時獨立行動的民兵。青年運動未回應這份報導。

伊拉克親伊朗民兵和青年運動,在加薩戰爭期間已擴大合作,曾協調對以色列發動攻擊。國際智庫「國際危機組織」(Crisis Group)葉門資深分析師納吉(Ahmed Nagi)指出,「在加薩戰爭期間聲勢鵲起的青年運動,在伊拉克受許多當地團體支持,而青年運動則向伊拉克民兵分享軍事經驗」,現在他們「就像鉗子一樣夾擊沙國」。

沙國在伊朗實質封鎖荷姆茲海峽後,將大部分石油轉到紅海出口。隨著青年運動開始攻擊紅海,沙國已將更多石油向北運往蘇伊士運河,透過埃及蘇伊士—地中海輸油管(SUMED)輸送。航運追蹤機構Kpler資料顯示,這條輸油管輸送量已從6月每日65萬桶,增加到8月的每日逾190萬桶。

但是青年運動上月以飛彈擊中紅海北部一艘沙國油輪,證明了他們也有能力攻擊這條替代運輸路線。據報該艘油輪當時正從沙國延布港駛往蘇伊士運河,遇襲地點距離青年運動控制區約1000公里。

Open Questions

  • 青年運動與伊拉克民兵的具體指揮鏈為何?
  • 沙國將採取何種軍事或外交手段應對此威脅?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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