At a time when international interest in combating terrorism has declined, the scope of activity of extremist groups in Africa is expanding, turning the continent into a major center for the global terrorist threat. While the major powers compete for their wealth and influence, armed organizations take advantage of the fragility of states and international divisions to enhance their presence. Has the conflict over Africa's resources become a new fuel for terrorism?
After the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and then the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the priority of combating terrorism declined on the agenda of Western powers, which directed their attention towards competition with China and the two wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. This coincided with a relative decline in the frequency of terrorist attacks globally, compared to the peak of ISIS activity in the middle of the last decade.
But this decline does not reflect the whole picture; Africa is moving in a different direction. United Nations reports and the Global Terrorism Index indicate that the continent has become the main center of terrorist activity, and it also includes three of the most deadly extremist groups: ISIS, the Group to Support Islam and Muslims, and the Al-Shabaab movement, as well as six countries on the list of the ten countries most affected by terrorism.
The threat is no longer limited to the Sahel and Sahara region, but has extended to countries that were not historically known for the activity of extremist groups, such as Benin, Togo, Mozambique, and the Central African Republic. This reflects the transformation of terrorism in Africa from a phenomenon with specific geographical foci to a threat that is spreading across large areas of the continent.
In an analysis published by the American magazine Foreign Affairs, Egusa Osagai, director of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, believes that ignoring the escalation of terrorism in Africa entails risks that go beyond the continent’s borders, especially since armed groups have become a threat to the stability and development of countries, as well as global security.
Osajay links the spread of extremism to internal factors, most notably the weakness of state institutions and its inability to provide security and basic services, and to contain poverty, unemployment, and diseases, in addition to its inability to extend its authority over its entire territory. These imbalances created security and social vacuums that armed groups exploited to recruit fighters and expand their influence.
But the problem does not stop at the borders of countries. The fragility of borders and the flow of weapons, drugs and money, in addition to human trafficking and migrant smuggling, have contributed to linking African groups into cross-border networks. These links provided funding, weapons, training, intelligence, and logistical support, including techniques for using drones and explosive devices.
In turn, these groups have become part of an illicit transnational economy, including smuggling, piracy, kidnapping for ransom, money laundering, and illegal mining, which gives them additional resources to continue and expand.
The spread of terrorism in Africa is not limited to local factors, but is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical and economic competition between major powers. Instead of uniting efforts to confront armed groups, the conflicting interests of external countries are hampering security cooperation and providing extremist organizations with new opportunities for maneuver.
Osagay points out that previous Western interventions, despite the support provided by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations for counter-terrorism operations, did not achieve sustainable results in most cases. Indeed, the deterioration of the security situation after some of these interventions contributed to the escalation of anti-Western sentiment.
With the decline of the American and French military presence in the Sahel region between 2022 and early 2025, Russia found an opportunity to strengthen its presence through bilateral defense agreements and associated forces, leading to what is known as the “African Corps.” This shift was not separate from Moscow's quest to expand its influence and access to natural resources and strategic minerals.
Meanwhile, US, Australian and Chinese competition over lithium deposits in Manono Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has complicated security coordination efforts. When the economic and geopolitical interests of external powers conflict, combating terrorism becomes less of a priority, and armed groups find greater scope to exploit divisions and enhance their influence.
Thus, Africa's mineral wealth is no longer just a factor that attracts investments and economic competition, but has become part of a complex security equation that may contribute to fueling and prolonging conflicts.
Osajay believes that confronting terrorism in Africa requires a radical change in the approach of international powers, based on the recognition that the threat is no longer local or regional, but rather has global dimensions, and cannot be contained without coordinated and sustainable international cooperation.
However, this cooperation will not achieve tangible results unless it is accompanied by addressing the reasons that make African societies and countries vulnerable to extremism. Military campaigns alone cannot eliminate an environment in which poverty and unemployment are widespread, state institutions are weak, and citizens’ confidence in governments declines.
In this context, the importance of institutional reforms, strengthening the rule of law, protecting human rights, community policing, and power-sharing, in addition to supporting development and improving public services, is highlighted. These measures may be more sustainable than relying on military solutions alone.
The responsibility remains with the United States, European countries, and international organizations to move from a policy of sporadic security interventions to a long-term strategy, based on supporting state institutions, enhancing regional cooperation, and directing development aid to the most fragile regions.
In light of the continuing international competition over Africa's wealth, the danger will not be limited to the expansion of extremist groups within the continent, but may extend beyond its borders. Unless the priorities of the major powers change, Africa may turn into an arena where turf wars intersect with terrorism, at the expense of the security of its people and the stability of the world.
