Over the past two decades, successive global crises have enhanced the economic and strategic importance of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, but the American-Israeli war on Iran in 2026 put these countries before an unprecedented test, and raised questions about the future of their security alliances, their defense capabilities, and the flexibility of their economies.
According to a strategic report issued by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) entitled: “The Gulf at War,” the American-Israeli war against Iran in 2026 constituted a turning point in the security and economic environment of the Gulf states, after they bore a large part of the repercussions of the Iranian military response to the American-Israeli attacks. The Gulf countries also incurred significant economic losses as a result of the disruption of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important sea lanes for global energy trade.
The report believes that the war represents one of the most severe military conflicts and economic turmoil that the Gulf states have faced during most of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, which may have profound effects on their foreign, defense, and economic policies.
Over the past decades, the Gulf countries have succeeded in building open economies that are interconnected with global markets, and have become an essential part of the energy, industry and logistics supply chains.
On the other hand, its defense strategies since the early 1990s have been based on the assumption that the American military presence on its territory and the security guarantees provided by Washington provide the necessary protection in the face of external threats.
These countries also bet that their increasing importance to global energy security, their foreign investments, and their influence in international capitals would prompt major powers to intervene to support them in the event of a crisis or conflict.
This sense of security has strengthened the ability of the Gulf countries to adopt ambitious economic visions based on technology and diversify sources of income, with the aim of reducing dependence on oil and gas in the future.
The report indicates that the war with Iran put these assumptions to the test, and revealed the limits of the models that the Gulf states adopted in managing their foreign, defense and economic policies, and also affected the image of stability and confidence that they sought to establish internally and internationally.
Despite this, the Gulf states demonstrated the ability to maintain their internal stability and the continued functioning of their institutions during the war. The number of victims remained limited, societies did not witness widespread panic or Iranian-instigated violence, and government services continued without interruption, despite the disturbances that affected some aspects of daily life.
In the face of these challenges, the Gulf states took urgent measures that included strengthening regional alliances, developing their capabilities to confront drones, expanding the infrastructure for alternative methods for transporting supplies, and redistributing the locations of planned vital infrastructure projects to reduce their exposure to risks.
The report concludes that the greatest challenge is not limited to dealing with the direct repercussions of the war, but rather extends to reformulating foreign policies, modernizing military systems, and reviewing economic priorities, in a way that enhances the ability of the Gulf states to confront future crises in a regional and international environment characterized by increasing volatility and instability.
