How can we prevent lines of people unable to return home? Ask a crowd management expert

Public transportation has stopped due to disasters and other reasons, and there is a long line at the taxi stand in front of the station. People spending the night on the streets or in station premises...

How can we change this scene that has been repeated every time someone has difficulty returning home? We asked Katsuhiro Nishinari, a professor at the University of Tokyo (congestion science), who works on crowd management.

Huge queue at the taxi stand

-- Traffic was paralyzed during the heavy rains in Chiba, and there were long lines at the taxi stand at the station the next day. The same scene is repeated every time there is a disaster or accident.

In a chaotic situation, we have no choice but to imitate the actions of those around us, which is called "herd mentality." Once hours have passed since the taxi line started, it was difficult to get out of the taxi line, even if no car arrived. It's called the "Concorde Fallacy," but if you keep putting in resources, you won't be able to withdraw them until you collect them. If you don't have any other options, it's understandable.

However, if you know that the train will no longer be running tonight or that there will be very little service the next day, there is a good chance that you won't line up in the first place. You need to be provided with the information you need to calmly assess your options. Local governments and infrastructure companies should take action during normal times to prevent information disparities between people.

This time as well, it was reported that the Chiba Prefectural Office (more than 1 km away from Chiba Station) took in many people who were unable to return home, but I think it is important to examine for the future how many people were informed about this and whether traffic information for the next day was properly disseminated.

--However, immediately after the disaster, the information is confusing. What information should be provided to those unable to return home at that point?

“Forecasting the future” at that point…