In response to those who promote the absence of any influence by France in the Lebanese file, Paris views the international meeting to support the Lebanese army and security forces as evidence of its ability to work to help Lebanon. What is new about the meeting is that it was placed within the framework of the so-called “Oqaba Path,” which Jordan launched ten years ago, and which focuses mainly on the challenges of security and stability in the Middle East, through dialogues of high-level experts.
According to the Elysee, the Jordanian King was the party that proposed that its current session be held in Paris, and that it be devoted to the Lebanese file, and that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun agreed to that. Also according to the Elysee, the discussions focus on “operational” issues and the tasks that will fall on the Lebanese Army, to ensure that the state exercises its authority over all Lebanese territory, beginning in the south. Therefore, the research will address the needs of the Lebanese Army that it will be able to present in terms of financial and capabilities, so that it can carry out the tasks assigned to it, and even accompany it in its tasks. Paris wants everyone to understand that no one will be able to replace the Lebanese army, pointing out that the mission of exclusive weapons that the state wants to carry out is entrusted to the Lebanese army, and it believes that it may be able to carry it out.
Before the start of the “technical” meeting; That is, the military, President Macron will have two bilateral meetings at the Elysee Palace in the morning, first with President Joseph Aoun, then with Jordanian King Abdullah II, and then a tripartite meeting will take place. Each of the three leaders is scheduled to deliver an opening speech at the meeting. The Elysee Palace reported that the leadership of the Lebanese Army and the Chiefs of Staff of the French, Jordanian, and British forces would be present, and that American military representation would be high.
Le Monde newspaper indicated, in its Tuesday issue, that General Joseph Clearfield will represent the US army, and that the US ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, will also attend the meeting, along with advisors to Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. As for Saudi representation, the Elysee reported that it would be military and political, and that the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, would be present, stressing that Paris is working “closely” with Saudi Arabia on the Lebanese file.
The Elysee sources did not reveal the identities of the other participating parties and the levels of military representation, but Asharq Al-Awsat learned from diplomatic sources that there are 17 countries and bodies that will participate in the meeting. Among them is a European mission and another UN mission, given that the post-UNIFIL file will be on the table.
The truth of the matter is that Paris does not want to raise expectations, so Elysee sources indicated that the meeting “is not to present numbers of financial commitments or a list of acquisitions that must be obtained.” However, on the other hand, it places the military-style meeting within a broader framework, which is restoring Lebanese sovereignty, achieving stability in the situation, and turning the page on the crises, which, according to what she said, involves implementing a set of reforms, including finance, a Lebanese consensus on reforms and elections, and reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, all of which are old demands that the international community asked the Lebanese to fulfill. However, Paris is aware of the difficult situation on the ground in the south due to the Israeli occupation of large areas of its territory, and the Israeli army’s attacks on infrastructure and displacement, all of which exacerbate the Lebanese difficulties. Paris is also aware that its tense relations with Israel do not facilitate the task of researching the period after the end of the UNIFIL mandate.
However, Paris is betting on two elements: The first is the work it is doing with Italy to fill the void resulting from the departure of the current UNIFIL. Italy currently provides the largest number to UNIFIL. The second is the European commitment to assist Lebanon through its approved foreign aid mechanisms. However, the double American and Israeli rejection of “UNIFIL 2” makes the task of Paris and Rome difficult, so the bet is on the meetings that the United Nations will host during this month, which can contribute to clarifying the picture.
It is no secret that Paris wants an international mandate that defines the mission of the force required to fill the security vacuum and assist the Lebanese army, which would encourage countries wishing to engage in this process. In any case, the highest goal that Paris seeks is based on two parts: helping Lebanon restore its sovereignty and authority, which requires disarming Hezbollah, which is the request stipulated in Resolution 1701 and in other international resolutions. The second is to reassure Israel of its security from the Blue Line. France considers that its presidency of the UN Security Council, for the current month, could be a helpful factor in finding a way out for alternative force in southern Lebanon.
Will the Paris meeting change anything in the Lebanese situation? The question can be asked, since the meetings devoted to supporting the Lebanese Army were many and, in recent years, they moved between Paris and Rome, but Thursday’s meeting is intended to be different from what preceded it in that it addresses practical matters that must be dealt with according to a clear common reading: on the one hand, monitoring the needs of the Lebanese Army and defining its tasks. On the other hand, the Arab international role in how to respond to these needs and meet them to enable it to play its role and not replace it.
Israel continued to carry out assassinations in the Gaza Strip, targeting prominent activists in Palestinian factions, especially the Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Hamas movement.
The events of the assassination attempts occurred on Tuesday afternoon, when two Hamas activists were targeted who were walking near the Al-Sinaa Junction, southwest of Gaza City, wounding them after they managed to move away from the place where they were targeted by a single missile from a drone, while 7 passers-by were injured to varying degrees and were taken to the city’s hospitals to receive treatment.
Days after the assassination of Muhammad al-Yazouri, commander of the Khan Yunis Brigade in the southern Gaza Strip, an Israeli drone killed, just before midnight on Monday-Tuesday, Ahmed al-Batsh, commander of the Jabalia al-Balad Brigade, in the Northern District, affiliated with the al-Qassam Brigades, after targeting a vehicle he was driving in the al-Saftawi neighborhood in northern Gaza.
A Hamas field source said, “There are alternatives for military leaders who are subject to assassination, according to a (flexible) mechanism, as was the case after the assassinations of historical leaders.”
The assassination of Al-Batsh coincided with another raid that targeted a group of young men in the Tal Al-Hawa neighborhood, southwest of Gaza City, wounding some of them, before it was announced, on Tuesday morning, the killing of the Al-Qassam Brigades activist, Yousef Al-Zaim.
An Israeli drone also carried out a raid on the roof of a building and a residential apartment, next to the Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza City, which led to the death of Muhammad Ajour, a company commander in the “Military Industrialization Unit” of the “Al-Qassam Brigades.”
An Israeli army statement confirmed that Ajour is active in the Military Industrialization Unit, claiming that he recently worked to “advance plans to target his forces and rebuild Hamas’ capabilities.”
This was preceded by the assassination of Raafat Abu Al-Zumar following the bombing of a tent by an Israeli drone in Mawasi Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.
Asharq Al-Awsat learned from another field source that Abu Al-Zumar was a company commander in the military training department of Al-Qassam, and he was one of the prominent field activists in the Rafah Brigade, and he had a direct relationship with Moamen Abu Libda, who was assassinated on Thursday-Friday night after his vehicle was bombed in Hamad Town.
In a statement, the Israeli army said, “Abu al-Zumar is a company commander in the Operations Authority. He led training for members of Hamas before the attack of October 7, 2023, and during the recent period he continued his training for other members and developing the movement’s combat capabilities,” according to its statement.
Also, on Monday afternoon, an Al-Qassam activist was injured in a raid that targeted him in a tent in a camp for the displaced in central Gaza City, and a number of other citizens were injured in the attack.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi concluded his European visit from Berlin, which he arrived from Paris, with a set of economic agreements signed between the two parties, in a visit that was based on economics, but was overshadowed by political developments in the region.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a joint press conference held with Al-Zaidi after their meeting at the Chancellery headquarters that the focus of the discussions “was the difficult situation in the region” and Iran’s role in the ongoing escalation.
Meretz called on Iran to end the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stop its military program and support for its proxies in the region, and called on Iran “not to transfer the conflict to Iraq,” as we have seen recently.
Mertz spoke of great concern about developments in the Red Sea, saying that the attacks on Saudi oil facilities exacerbate the situation in the oil markets and affect Germany, calling for international navigation in the Red Sea not to be made “hostage by the hands of the Houthi militias.”
Meretz encouraged the Iraqi government to “move forward, decisively, to disarm the militias,” stressing “his country’s readiness to cooperate with the Iraqi government in the military and security field if the Iraqi government so desires.”
“Mission accomplished”
In response to a question about the German military presence in Iraq as part of an international mission to fight ISIS, Mertz confirmed that this mission “will end in two weeks at the request of the Iraqi government,” but he indicated that Berlin “is ready to complete assistance if Baghdad requests it.”
Al-Zaidi, for his part, spoke about the importance of developing economic relations with Germany, noting that the crisis “between Iran and the United States has cast its shadow over the entire world, especially Iraqi oil sales, which were greatly affected by the situation in Hormuz,” stressing that his country is “far from supporting any aggressive policy in the region,” and that he personally “believes in moderation.”
Regarding the marches that were launched from Iraqi territory towards Saudi oil facilities, Al-Zaidi refused to reveal the details of the investigations conducted by his country, and merely said that “a joint investigation committee with Iran is working to uncover the details of what happened,” and that “the results of the investigations will not be announced before their analysis is completed.”
While Al-Zaidi stressed Iraq’s inability, as is the case with countries affected by the regional crisis, to export its oil products, he announced agreements that include selling Iraqi oil to Berlin in exchange for contracts related to German technology in Iraq, pointing to “Iraqi efforts to expand sources of oil supply and outlets.”
Al-Zaidi confirmed that “efforts are underway to expand the Ceyhan oil pipeline through Turkey, in addition to exporting it through Syria with the aim of sending it to Europe, in addition to attempts to double Iraqi oil production to reach about 10 million barrels per day, a large part or half of which will be exported to Europe.”
For months, European countries, especially Germany, have been suffering from a significant rise in fuel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and they have only been able to fill their gas tanks to half, which is a very low rate before the winter when demand for gas increases.
The German government is also seeking to diversify its energy sources, noting that years ago it began purchasing gas and oil from various sources to fill the void left by the cessation of importing Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Moscow.
