In response to those who promote the absence of any influence by France in the Lebanese file, Paris views the international meeting to support the Lebanese army and security forces as evidence of its ability to work to help Lebanon. What is new about the meeting is that it was placed within the framework of the so-called “Oqaba Path,” which Jordan launched ten years ago, and which focuses mainly on the challenges of security and stability in the Middle East, through dialogues of high-level experts.
According to the Elysee, the Jordanian King was the party that proposed that its current session be held in Paris, and that it be devoted to the Lebanese file, and that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun agreed to that. Also according to the Elysee, the discussions focus on “operational” issues and the tasks that will fall on the Lebanese Army, to ensure that the state exercises its authority over all Lebanese territory, beginning in the south. Therefore, the research will address the needs of the Lebanese Army that it will be able to present in terms of financial and capabilities, so that it can carry out the tasks assigned to it, and even accompany it in its tasks. Paris wants everyone to understand that no one will be able to replace the Lebanese army, pointing out that the mission of exclusive weapons that the state wants to carry out is entrusted to the Lebanese army, and it believes that it may be able to carry it out.
Before the start of the “technical” meeting; That is, the military, President Macron will have two bilateral meetings at the Elysee Palace in the morning, first with President Joseph Aoun, then with Jordanian King Abdullah II, and then a tripartite meeting will take place. Each of the three leaders is scheduled to deliver an opening speech at the meeting. The Elysee Palace reported that the leadership of the Lebanese Army and the Chiefs of Staff of the French, Jordanian, and British forces would be present, and that American military representation would be high.
Le Monde newspaper indicated, in its Tuesday issue, that General Joseph Clearfield will represent the US army, and that the US ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, will also attend the meeting, along with advisors to Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. As for Saudi representation, the Elysee reported that it would be military and political, and that the Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, would be present, stressing that Paris is working “closely” with Saudi Arabia on the Lebanese file.
The Elysee sources did not reveal the identities of the other participating parties and the levels of military representation, but Asharq Al-Awsat learned from diplomatic sources that there are 17 countries and bodies that will participate in the meeting. Among them is a European mission and another UN mission, given that the post-UNIFIL file will be on the table.
The truth of the matter is that Paris does not want to raise expectations, so Elysee sources indicated that the meeting “is not to present numbers of financial commitments or a list of acquisitions that must be obtained.” However, on the other hand, it places the military-style meeting within a broader framework, which is restoring Lebanese sovereignty, achieving stability in the situation, and turning the page on the crises, which, according to what she said, involves implementing a set of reforms, including finance, a Lebanese consensus on reforms and elections, and reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, all of which are old demands that the international community asked the Lebanese to fulfill. However, Paris is aware of the difficult situation on the ground in the south due to the Israeli occupation of large areas of its territory, and the Israeli army’s attacks on infrastructure and displacement, all of which exacerbate the Lebanese difficulties. Paris is also aware that its tense relations with Israel do not facilitate the task of researching the period after the end of the UNIFIL mandate.
However, Paris is betting on two elements: The first is the work it is doing with Italy to fill the void resulting from the departure of the current UNIFIL. Italy currently provides the largest number to UNIFIL. The second is the European commitment to assist Lebanon through its approved foreign aid mechanisms. However, the double American and Israeli rejection of “UNIFIL 2” makes the task of Paris and Rome difficult, so the bet is on the meetings that the United Nations will host during this month, which can contribute to clarifying the picture.
It is no secret that Paris wants an international mandate that defines the mission of the force required to fill the security vacuum and assist the Lebanese army, which would encourage countries wishing to engage in this process. In any case, the highest goal that Paris seeks is based on two parts: helping Lebanon restore its sovereignty and authority, which requires disarming Hezbollah, which is the request stipulated in Resolution 1701 and in other international resolutions. The second is to reassure Israel of its security from the Blue Line. France considers that its presidency of the UN Security Council, for the current month, could be a helpful factor in finding a way out for alternative force in southern Lebanon.
Will the Paris meeting change anything in the Lebanese situation? The question can be asked, since the meetings devoted to supporting the Lebanese Army were many and, in recent years, they moved between Paris and Rome, but Thursday’s meeting is intended to be different from what preceded it in that it addresses practical matters that must be dealt with according to a clear common reading: on the one hand, monitoring the needs of the Lebanese Army and defining its tasks. On the other hand, the Arab international role in how to respond to these needs and meet them to enable it to play its role and not replace it.
