The reporter learned from the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration that an "eastern-type super strong El Niño event" was officially formed in September this year. This event developed rapidly and with strong intensity, and is expected to become the strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring began.
Sea temperatures in the Niño 3.4 area continue to rise, reaching super event standards
According to meteorological satellite monitoring, since May, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has entered an El Niño state, and sea temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 zone have continued to rise. From July to September, the moving average of the SST index in the Niño 3.4 zone exceeded 2.5°C, reaching the standard for a super event. The meteorological department predicts that in the next three months, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter. This El Niño event will become the strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring.
Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration: The National Climate Center mainly monitors the sea temperature index in the Niño 3.4 zone in a specific area. When the three-month moving average of the index reaches or exceeds 0.5°C and lasts for at least 5 months, it is determined to be an El Niño event. The intensity of the event is defined as its peak value, which is the maximum value reached by the three-month moving average of the SST index in the Niño3.4 area. An event peak reaching or exceeding 0.5°C but less than 1.3°C is defined as a weak event, reaching or exceeding 1.3°C but less than 2.0°C is defined as a medium event, reaching or exceeding 2.0°C is defined as a strong event, and reaching or exceeding 2.5°C is defined as a super strong event.
According to experts, El Niño can be divided into two forms based on the location of the strongest sea temperature warming center. The warm center is located in the equatorial eastern Pacific, which is the Eastern El Niño, which is the traditional type;
The impact of super strong El Niño will last until the summer of 2027
The latest monitoring from the National Climate Center shows that this El Niño phenomenon has reached the "super strong" level due to the large warming of sea temperatures. Its impact is expected to last until the summer of 2027, having a significant impact on my country's climate. The National Climate Center reminds the public to pay attention to weather forecasts in a timely manner, understand in advance the ups and downs of cold and warm temperatures this winter and possible heavy rains, floods, and high temperatures and heat waves next summer, and be prepared for prevention.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon typically characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts for about 9 to 12 months. It is expected that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to fluctuate and rise, reaching the peak of this event around November and December. The intensity is expected to exceed the three super events in history, namely 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, becoming the strongest since there are observational records. This event has outstanding characteristics such as rapid development, strong intensity, and significant impact on climate.
Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration: Affected by the rapid development of El Niño, in the summer of 2026, the central and eastern regions of my country will generally experience more waterlogging than drought, showing the characteristics of "more in the north and south, less in the middle". The heavy rain process is broad and strong, with overlapping falling areas and causing multiple disasters. At the same time, typhoons are active, strong and have long-lasting wind and rain effects. In autumn, precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin and most areas south of it is mainly excessive. In the south of the Yangtze River and in the eastern part of southwest China, precipitation is obviously excessive, and the probability of extreme precipitation events is high. In places such as the eastern part of southwest China and southern China, the temperature is obviously higher. It is expected that in winter, most areas in southern my country will experience more precipitation and generally warmer temperatures. However, periodic cold air activities will be more frequent, with obvious fluctuations in cold and warm temperatures.
Experts from the Meteorological Department predict that in the summer of 2027, my country's climate will be more significantly affected by El Niño than in 2026. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will experience significantly more precipitation. The risk of heavy rains and floods will be higher, and there may be severe floods. High-temperature heat waves in Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China and other places will also be more obvious.
Multiple risks intertwined and superimposed to scientifically respond to super strong El Niño
The rapid development of El Niño affects the global ocean and atmosphere system, and further affects the weather and climate in my country and even the world. In the future, our country will face a complex situation with multiple risks caused by the El Niño event. The meteorological department reminds the public to pay close attention to approaching weather forecasts and warnings, and pay attention to heavy precipitation, high temperature and heat waves when traveling; key industries such as agriculture and transportation should improve disaster prevention plans in advance and respond scientifically.
El Niño develops rapidly and affects the global ocean and atmosphere systems. It has a greater impact on key industries such as agriculture, electric power, infrastructure, and transportation. The superimposed warming effect of El Niño in the context of global warming will increase the probability of high-temperature heat waves, make the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation more uneven, and the characteristics of typhoon activity may also change. Key industries need to plan in advance and respond scientifically.
In the spring and summer of 2027 when El Niño weakens and ends, major grain-producing areas such as Northeast my country and North China need to pay attention to the impact of excessive rainfall and prone to floods on grain production. Most of the northwest region, Xinjiang and other places need to prepare for drought risks caused by high temperatures and lack of rain. At the same time, attention should be paid to preventing large-scale outbreaks of pests and diseases caused by warm winters and abnormally warm and humid environments.
In view of the extreme precipitation that El Niño may bring and trigger disasters such as urban flooding, flash floods, landslides, and mudslides, as well as possible risks such as railway suspensions, highway closures, port suspensions, and flight delays, we should focus on enhancing urban resilience and improving infrastructure disaster prevention capabilities. The National Climate Center continues to strengthen dynamic monitoring and rolling forecasting, closely tracks the development of El Niño events, and conducts timely review analysis and forecasting.
