The Allegation of US Cutting Off Aid to Peshmerga and Its Effects on KRG

According to the news in the BBC and the KRG local press, it is claimed that the US support for the Peshmerga forces, which includes annual financial aid of up to 61 million dollars, will end on September 30.

On the date when aid to Peshmerga forces will allegedly be cut off, it is expected that the US-led International Coalition against ISIS in Iraq will end its mandate in the country.

Speaking to AA correspondent, experts discussed how the possibility of cutting aid to Peshmerga forces could affect the security of KRG, which is the target of many unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and missile attacks in the war between the USA/Israel and Iran, and Washington-Erbil relations.

"It will leave the KRG more vulnerable to attacks"

Regarding the possibility of the end of US aid to Peshmerga forces, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Omar Al-Nidawi said, "This situation will likely increase anxiety in Erbil about the path Washington is following as an ally." he said.

As an example of this situation, Nidawi showed that "Iraqi Kurdish leaders are watching with concern the developments that they see as the United States abandoning the Syrian Kurds in favor of strengthening the Syrian central government during the 2025-2026 conflicts."

Stating that the most urgent security concern for Iraqi Kurds is "the air defense capacities of Iran and allied militias to protect against drone and missile attacks against the KRG," Nidawi said:

"As the US withdraws its last remaining soldiers, combined with the loss of US (air defense) systems, the end of the aid program (to the Peshmerga) will leave the KRG more vulnerable to attacks."

Nidawi also shared the view that "KRG may come under increasing pressure to meet Iran's demands on issues such as the presence of Kurdish opposition groups in the region."

"Aid has never been a long-term arrangement"

Hamzeh Hadad, a member of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), said, "I do not think that the relations between the USA and Iraqi Kurdistan will change. At the end of the day, the Kurdish parties in Iraq need the USA more than the USA needs them." he said.

Hadad stated that the issue of US aid to Peshmerga "has never been a long-term arrangement regarding security."

Hadad said that the possibility of aid cuts will force the KRG to take security reform more seriously and underlined that more coordination with Iraqi security forces may be required.

Hadad said, "The presence and support of the USA did not prevent the attacks of Iran and the armed groups in Iraq (against the KRG). Less involvement of the USA (cutting off aid to the Peshmerga) would create less excuse for Iraqi Kurdistan to be a target." made his assessment.

"KRG will be more dependent on Baghdad to finance Peshmerga forces"

Journalist Paul Iddon, who works on the Middle East, especially the KRG, stated that he did not think that the effect of stopping aid to Peshmerga forces would necessarily be bad, and said, "This aid was provided from the beginning, within the framework of the anti-DAESH mission (the US-led international coalition), which has now ended, and it would never be permanent." he said.

Stating that KRG officials have also accepted this situation in recent weeks, Iddon said that the coalition's combat mission officially ended in December 2021, and therefore "this is not a sudden and sudden development."

"At the same time, the timing is somewhat worrying for Erbil. Erbil has long struggled to pay most civil servants' salaries on time and will become even more dependent on Baghdad to finance Peshmerga troops employed by the Ministry of Peshmerga," Iddon said. he said.

"The withdrawal of the coalition will affect KRG security more than cutting off aid."

"Withdrawal of coalition forces will, at least in the short term, affect KRG security more than cutting off aid (to Peshmerga)." Iddon said that American and British air defense systems actually provided significant protection to Erbil against UAVs and missiles throughout the war between the USA/Israel and Iran, but most of them were withdrawn.

Iddon, however, stated that these systems "never provided the strategic defense of the KRG" and pointed out that during the US/Israel-Iran war, Peshmerga members who were targeted with missiles lost their lives and the residences of the KRG leaders were repeatedly targeted with UAVs.

Iddon said that the coalition forces "could not or did not defend" the city of Erbil against the missile attacks carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in March 2022 and April 2024.

"There is a possibility, albeit low, that the US withdrawal will lead to a decrease in attacks by Iran and Iraqi militias against the KRG, but I would not count on it. I suspect that the Iranian/Revolutionary Guards Army will continue its attacks against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups here (in the KRG). I think after the withdrawal, you will occasionally see US/coalition warplanes taking off from bases outside Iraq, shooting down Iraqi militia and Iranian drones targeting the region."

There may be a possibility of a new security framework between the USA and KRG in the future

Noting that this situation is probably another transition phase in US-KRG relations, Iddon commented that the two actors will most likely operate under a new security framework in the future.

"US officials constantly highlight the construction of the largest American consulate in Erbil as evidence of ongoing ties. Still, a potential power vacuum in Iraq is worrisome for the KRG," Iddon said. he said.