The issue of arms control and the state’s authority in the south has once again advanced to the forefront of Lebanese political positions, coinciding with the continuation of Israeli raids, bombings and bombings in a number of towns. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stressed that the army and legitimate security forces are the only reference for the security of citizens, while he called on the Maronite bishops to support the ongoing negotiations and the process of restricting weapons to the state.
Aoun's position came during his reception of a delegation from the municipality of Deir Mimas, which has a Christian majority located south of the Litani River. He linked the steadfastness of the population in their land to the role of the state and its institutions, stressing that the southerners’ adherence to their land “is the most eloquent response to all attempts at displacement, intimidation, and attacks committed by Israel,” stressing that the state will remain alongside the people of the south, those who are steadfast and those forcibly displaced from their villages and towns, until the end of the Israeli occupation or the siege on every southern village.
Limitation of weapons and the decision on war and peace
The issue of weapons exclusivity was attended at the meeting from the entrance to the demands of the people of Deir Mimas. Mayor Tania Barnabh, on behalf of the delegation, affirmed the people’s appreciation for Aoun’s insistence that weapons be restricted to the Lebanese state, and that the decision on war and peace should return to it and its legitimate institutions, first and foremost the army and security forces throughout Lebanese territory.
Barnaba presented the reality that the town and its people are experiencing in light of the exceptional security, economic and humanitarian conditions, stressing that they are “keen for the town to remain a living part of the Lebanese state, present in its institutions and services, and for its people not to feel abandoned or isolated from the rest of the Lebanese forces.”
There is no security reference outside the country
In his response to the delegation, Aoun saluted the steadfastness of the town’s residents, expressing his solidarity with the people in the damage, suffering and displacement they endure, like other southerners, whether those who remained in their villages or those who were forcibly displaced as a result of Israeli attacks.
He said: “The state is present, as much as the security conditions allow in each region, to protect its people and provide the elements of steadfastness,” considering this “a national priority that cannot be compromised, and there will only be the Lebanese army and the legitimate security forces, the only authority responsible for the security of citizens.”
He stressed that “political, diplomatic and negotiating efforts are continuing to stop the Israeli attacks, restore stability, achieve complete withdrawal from the occupied territories, deploy the army to the internationally recognized southern border, return the people to their villages, begin reconstruction, and support municipalities to enable them to carry out their role, and secure basic services such as electricity, water, roads, schools and health centres.”
The bishops support negotiations and arms control
Aoun's position on the exclusiveness of the security authority intersected with the position of the Council of Maronite Bishops, which, in its monthly meeting in Bkerke, placed stopping Israeli attacks, supporting negotiations, and restricting weapons to the state in one context.
The bishops said in their statement: “The members of the Council repeatedly denounce the continuation of the Israeli attacks on the south and its people and call on the international community to make efforts for the return of the population to their land and to support the ongoing negotiations and the process of restricting weapons to the state.”
Nabatieh Al-Fawqa... returning on foot under threat
Following the visit of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to Nabatieh, the scene of Nabatieh Al-Fawqa reflected the extent of the complications that still hinder returning to some southern towns. A number of the town's residents entered on foot despite Israeli threats, in a step that reflected their commitment to reaching their town in light of the continuing security conditions that prevent a normal and complete return.
The scene intersected with the messages carried by Salam's visit regarding stabilizing the people in their land and restoring state institutions to their role, but at the same time it showed the gap between the path of return pushed by the government and the field reality that is still governed by Israeli threats and operations.
Continuous field escalation
The political positions coincided with the continued Israeli escalation in the south, where operations were distributed between artillery shelling, raids, and bombing operations in a number of towns.
Field information reported that Israeli bombing targeted Mays al-Jabal, while the Israeli army carried out sweeping operations with machine guns towards the outskirts of Baraashit, and major explosions in the towns of Beit Lev and Aitaroun in the Bint Jbeil district.
Israeli aircraft also raided in two batches the town of Al-Mansouri, south of Tyre, which also witnessed a huge explosion that caused sounds and concussions that were felt by the residents of Tyre and neighboring towns.
The Israeli forces carried out a huge bombing in Majdal Zone in two batches, after the Israeli artillery had bombed at dawn Beit Yahoun, Al-Mansouri, Wadi Zebqin, and Wadi Al-Salouqi, in conjunction with the shooting with machine guns towards Hadada and the outskirts of Baraashit.
Over the past few days, security incidents in Syria have escalated significantly, and have taken many forms, the most recent of which is the targeting of a bus carrying employees of an electricity company on the Masyaf Bridge in Homs, resulting in deaths and injuries. This was accompanied by an explosion in the gas line feeding the Tishreen Thermal Station in the Damascus countryside, which led to three power stations being taken out of service, and its impact extended to drinking water networks. Two days earlier, an explosion occurred on a gas pipeline in the east of the country, and an assassination attempt occurred on an officer in the Ministry of Defense in the city of Al-Sanamayn in the Daraa countryside.
What is striking about these incidents is the short time interval between them, unlike what happened in previous incidents that were separated by relatively distant periods. The new incidents also came at a sensitive time. The Syrian authorities are suffering from increasing economic pressures, as they seek to establish stability and security in the country, and attract investments for reconstruction, in addition to their efforts to transform Syria into a strategic corridor linking energy lines between Arab countries and then to Turkey and all the way to Europe, in light of the impact of navigation in the vital Strait of Hormuz due to the confrontation between the United States and Iran.
While a Syrian security source currently prefers not to comment on the security situation in the country, Asharq Al-Awsat polled the opinions of two security and military experts about those who benefit from attempts to weaken the authority in Syria and spread chaos.
Commenting on the current security situation, Syrian security and military strategic expert Ismat al-Absi said: “We are facing a deliberate pattern of acts of sabotage, not isolated incidents.” Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Absi said that the occurrence of these events within just one week “is neither a coincidence nor a random accumulation; “It is a systematic campaign aimed at striking vital infrastructure and showing the state incapable of protecting the most basic rights of its citizens.”
It is likely that the goal behind these incidents is “psychological,” and is to instill certainty that there is no safe place in Syria, and that the new state has not yet been able to impose effective control outside major city centers.
Beneficiaries
Al-Absi believed that ISIS sleeper cells have a direct interest in demonstrating the security failure of the new Syrian government, as part of the organization’s efforts to rebuild its secret structure and recruit new elements. He added that the remnants of the previous regime and its financial and military networks also have a great motive to keep the country in a spiral of instability that prevents the establishment of a strong state capable of accountability. Al-Absi pointed out that these parties have deep knowledge of the locations of vital installations and old security work methods, and a large financial capacity generated from years of corruption, noting that they use multiple tools to achieve their goals, including forming small armed cells, carrying out sabotage operations targeting infrastructure, and targeted assassinations against officers who participated in the transition process, or against those who are pursuing networks linked to the Assad regime.
The same expert explained that among the parties that have an interest in keeping Syria divided security-wise and weak militarily is Israel. He added that Iran has in fact lost its previous influence, but it still maintains influential networks, especially in the Syrian coastal regions.
Al-Absi pointed out that each of these parties finds it in their interest for Syria to remain completely unstable. Because a united and strong Syria will be more able to reject external dictates.
In addition to these, Al-Absi said that there are also arms and drug dealers who have benefited economically from the collapse of law and order, and the presence of a weak army and collapsed security means the continuation of cross-border smuggling routes, whether with Türkiye, Iraq, Jordan or Lebanon, and thus the continuation of their profits.
He added: “There is no single party responsible, but rather a network of intersecting interests, all of which find direct gain in the security chaos.”
The solution... 5 simultaneous tracks
According to Al-Absi, the Syrian authorities’ overcoming the current reality requires five simultaneous, not sequential, paths, stressing that there is no security solution in isolation from the political-economic-institutional solution. He explained that these paths are, first: “Completing the process of restricting weapons to the state, which is a fundamental condition,” while the second path is “building an effective and clean intelligence apparatus. Syria’s current problem is not the absence of security services, but rather their dispersion and weak integration.” The third track is “addressing the economic crisis that fuels violence.” Because, according to Al-Absi, “security cannot be separated from the economy.” When the average per capita income is less than the poverty line, and when unemployment is above 40 percent in some governorates, recruiting young people into armed cells or organized crime gangs becomes a simple arithmetic matter for them.”
He explained that the government can provide a better alternative if it does three things: “restarting small and medium enterprises in marginalized areas, providing temporary job opportunities through public works programs, and ensuring that basic services reach the countryside where radical ideas are spreading due to the economic and cultural vacuum,” considering that “investing in hope is much cheaper than investing in prisons.”
While the fourth track is “a comprehensive national dialogue that includes everyone.” Because the political vacuum after the fall of Assad created space for conflicting interpretations, according to Al-Absi, who pointed out that each sect and each region reads the events from the perspective of its own fear. The Druze fear the hegemony of the center, the Alawites remember the events on the coast in March 2025, the Sunnis want guarantees against the return of any form of individual rule, and the Kurds seek to preserve their administrative gains in the northeast. In his opinion: “This diversity is not a weakness, but it requires an institutional framework. The new constitution must be written through an elected constituent assembly that includes real representatives from all components, not a closed list determined by the executive authority. True administrative decentralization, with clear financial powers for the governorates, is the only way to transform anxiety from identity to participation in construction.”
Al-Absi believes that the fifth path is “transparent communication with the people.” Regarding this path, he said, “The official silence about explosions and assassinations fuels conspiracy theories and fear, and the Syrian people deserve to know the truth, even if it is uncomfortable.” If the explosion in Al-Eis (an ammunition warehouse in the southern countryside of Aleppo last September 21) was the result of poor storage, say so. If there are suspicions of an internal security breach, explain the measures you have taken. Trust is built with transparency, not with huge announcements of security victories. The government media also needs a radical modernization: not propaganda, but a professional media that provides information first and leaves public opinion to evaluate performance.”
Al-Absi promised, “Syria has a historic opportunity to build again, but the opportunity does not last.” Every week that passes without tangible progress in the five files above gives internal and external opponents more space to work, and what is required is not idealism, but momentum: quick, measurable decisions, field results that appear to the people within months, not years, and a leadership that knows that legitimacy is won by actions, not by slogans.
Accurate and fast processing
For his part, Syrian political and security researcher Diaa Qaddour explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that the new Syria suffers from many and multiple security challenges.
Qaddour agreed with Al-Absi in terms of the need to quickly address this situation. He said: “When these challenges come together, the situation becomes more complex, which requires more precise and more rapid treatment.”
Qaddour believed that the security events that occurred during the past days may not be related to each other, or they may be related. But he mentioned that the situation that Syria is going through is sensitive, as Syria has been removed from the sanctions and terrorism lists, and there are threats from ISIS, in addition to the tense relationship with the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Iraq, considering that all of this has an impact inside Syria, in addition to the chaos of weapons and the presence of those who reject the political changes that have occurred in the country.
He added: “It is true that these factors seem separate, but together they work according to one main goal, which is to weaken the government and thwart its efforts to establish stability and security.”
