The Strait of Hormuz returned to the forefront of the US-Iranian escalation on Wednesday, with the exchange of tough political messages about the future of navigation in one of the most important energy sea lanes in the world.
While Washington says that Iran has “lost complete control” over the Strait, and that the flow of oil through it has approached its pre-war levels, Tehran adheres to its position that restoring normal navigation is linked to the implementation of Iranian conditions and American guarantees, at a time when indirect communications through intermediaries continue.
“The straits are open”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday, during his visit to Athens, that Iran has “lost complete control” over the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the movement of oil through the strategic corridor has returned to levels close to what it was before the outbreak of war.
Rubio stressed that “the straits are open,” and that the amount of oil coming out of the region has become close to what was flowing before the war, considering this evidence that Tehran no longer has full control over the sea lane.
Rubio believed that “the Iranian economy is in a state of complete collapse” as a result of sanctions and economic pressure, and linked Iran’s financial resources to its support for its allies in the region.
Rubior touched on the nuclear issue, stressing that “Washington will not accept Iran possessing a nuclear weapon.” He stressed that “any American-acceptable agreement must guarantee that Tehran does not possess a nuclear weapon.”
Vance demands commitments
Rubio's statements were consistent with the position expressed by US Vice President J.D. Vance, in an interview with Reuters, when he said that Iran's attempts to disrupt the movement of oil and gas by targeting commercial ships did not succeed in stopping the flows on a large scale.
Vance stressed that “Washington wants to open the Strait and lift the American blockade, in parallel with entering into negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program,” but he accused Tehran of “not adhering to” what he considered an essential part of the proposed understanding, which is not targeting commercial ships.
In parallel, Washington continues to emphasize the nuclear file. Vance said that Iran must make concrete commitments regarding enrichment, including halting enrichment to levels that could lead to the production of a nuclear weapon, which represents a basic condition for any settlement.
Iranian response
In a new Iranian response to Vance’s statements, a senior Iranian official, directly involved in indirect communications with Washington, said that American demands and ideas regarding the nuclear program conflict with Tehran’s demands.
The official said, in statements reported by Reuters on Wednesday, that what Vance put forward regarding the need for Iran to reduce its capabilities to enrich uranium represents “American ideas and demands,” adding that the United States is “free to present its demands and ideas,” but at the same time it does not agree with Iranian demands.
The official explained that any negotiations regarding the nuclear program have not begun yet, and that Washington is required to first implement the conditions proposed by Tehran before moving to discuss the nuclear file. This position reflects a clear disagreement over the order of priorities and the sequence of steps required to reach an agreement.
The Iranian official said that the United States’ recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium represents a red line for Tehran, and that Iran “will not show flexibility” in this principle, while leaving the door open to discussing the details and levels of enrichment at a later stage.
Qalibaf and Iranian conditions
On the other hand, the last documented Iranian position on the mechanism for reopening the Strait was issued by the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who said that Tehran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz before implementing 7 conditions linked to the memorandum of understanding that the two parties reached in June.
According to Reuters, Iran presented a plan during the United Nations General Assembly meetings that would allow the reopening of the strait and the restoration of normal navigation within 7 days, provided that the required commitments from the American side are implemented.
Ghalibaf said that the Iranian position is “clear and firm,” and that the stage of prolonging negotiations or imposing unilateral demands has ended, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that his country is ready to reopen the Strait within the proposed plan if Washington accepts the conditions.
Araqchi: The ball is in the American court
Araqchi had announced that the Iranian plan includes confidence-building steps that could lead to the reopening of the Strait within 7 days, noting that its implementation now depends on the decision of the United States.
He also warned that any return to the military option would be met with an Iranian response, and said that his country is ready to take what it deems necessary to defend itself if Washington chooses escalation instead of diplomacy.
As for Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei, he confirmed that Tehran’s focus at the current stage is on the Strait of Hormuz and restoring security and navigation in it, indicating that American proposals still focus more on the nuclear file. He also denied that Iran had offered to make nuclear concessions in exchange for lifting sanctions.
Who starts first?
The essence of the dispute between the two parties is not only related to the principle of reopening the strait, but also to the sequence of steps. Tehran says that Washington is required first to implement the agreed upon conditions and commitments, after which the Strait can be reopened within 7 days.
As for Washington, it wants to ensure the opening of navigation and stop targeting ships in parallel with addressing the Iranian nuclear file, and it believes that Iran has not fully committed to what was proposed to it.
Between the two positions, the Qatari mediation continues to transmit messages between Washington and Tehran, in an attempt to bring positions closer to the Strait and the broader settlement.
Director of the Media and Communications Department at the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ibrahim bin Sultan Al-Hashimi, said on Tuesday that there are ongoing talks and an exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran via Doha.
He explained that “the Qatari goal currently is not to announce a ready agreement, but rather to reach progress that can be built upon, and that includes all issues of disagreement between the two parties.”
The Qatari confirmation coincided with the visit of Iranian Interior Minister Iskander Momeni to Doha, which gave the visit additional importance in the context of Qatari-Iranian communications, especially since the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani received him, and together they discussed developments in the situation in the region and efforts aimed at reducing the escalation, in a way that enhances regional and international security and stability.
Ibrahim Al-Hashimi, Director of the Media and Communications Department at the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explained during a media briefing that the Iranian Interior Minister’s visit is partly related to discussing the fate of the three Iranian pilots who went missing while carrying out an operation targeting the US Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar on the second of last March, shortly after the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Al-Hashemi said: “We are open to visiting the Iranian side to learn about the developments of the Iranian pilots.”
On August 17, Qatar denied detaining the pilots, and confirmed that it had sent an invitation to Iran “to review the details of the search and rescue operations last April, and the Iranian side has not responded to it yet.”
