"6 magnitude earthquake" warning from experts after earthquakes in Adana and Osmaniye

After the 4.8, 4.9 and 5.2 magnitude earthquakes that occurred consecutively in Adana and Osmaniye, all eyes turned to the critical question. Is there a possibility of a larger earthquake in the region? Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş stated that the increase in magnitude from 4.5 to 4.9 and 5.2 in the recent earthquakes made him nervous, and he mentioned the possibility of an earthquake of approximately 6 magnitude in the region. Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal also pointed out that the region is tectonically active and said that it has the potential to produce a larger earthquake.

PROF. DR. OSMAN BEKTAŞ: IT MADE ME UNCONFIDENT

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş stated that, according to the available data, there is no reason for those living in Adana to panic. Stating that the earthquakes occurred on the Savrun Fault, Bektaş said that seismic activity in the region has continued since 2023. Bektaş said, "Right now, there is no situation for the people of Adana to panic. But let me tell you this, there are two scenarios here. The first scenario is this, the scenario that comforts me. These earthquakes are on the Savrun Fault. Today's earthquake is on the fault." Stating that earthquakes of magnitude 4 and 5 have occurred from time to time in the Savrun Fault since 2023, Bektaş pointed out that there was no major earthquake after these earthquakes in approximately three years. Bektaş stated that this is important for the behavior of the Savrun Fault and said, "From 2023 to 2026, that is, for 3 years, there were such earthquakes of 4-5 magnitude. But there was no big earthquake afterward." Stating that this situation was a scenario that relieved him, Bektaş stated that the Savrun Fault is a fault that discharges earthquake energy from time to time.

'SAVRUN FAIL SHOWS A DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR'

Bektaş said that the Savrun Fault behaves differently from the faults that produced the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023. "This means that the Savrun Fault gradually discharges the earthquake energy. It is a weak fault. It discharges the energy from time to time," said Bektaş, adding that the Savrun Fault behaves differently from the faults that produced the 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the east and north of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes.

Bektaş said, "In other words, the Savrun Fault shows a different behavior than the fault that produced earthquakes of 7.5 magnitude in the north and 7.8 magnitude in the east, which occurred in 2023. It has been producing earthquakes of magnitude 4-5 for 3 years. This shows us that this fault is slowly moving and releasing earthquake energy. It is slowly releasing the stresses and tectonic stresses resulting from the big earthquake."

THE INCREASED MOBILITY FROM 4.5 TO 5.2 DRAWED ATTENTION

However, Bektaş stated that the increase in the magnitude of the recent earthquakes made him uneasy, and drew attention to the fact that earthquakes of magnitude 4.5, 4.9 and 5.2 occurred consecutively. Bektaş said, "However, what makes me a little uneasy is this. Starting with 4.5 and rising to 4.9 and 5.2 made me a little uneasy. Frankly, we need to follow this." Stating that there is a possibility of a larger earthquake, Bektaş underlined that this is not a definite result. "Could a bigger earthquake occur? It is possible. But it may remain like this. So if you look at the past, it will remain like this," he said.

'A MAGNITUDE 6 EARTHQUAKE MAY OCCUR'

Bektaş stated that there is a possibility that the activity in the Savrun Fault could turn into a larger earthquake and also made an evaluation about the possible earthquake magnitude. Bektaş said, "The earthquake that may occur here is approximately 6 magnitude. There is a possibility of a 6 magnitude earthquake coming from behind," and emphasized that past behavior should also be taken into account. Bektaş said, "But I repeat. The behavior of this fault has been producing such medium-sized earthquakes for 3 years. This gives us relief. But I say this to be cautious. We have to be cautious."

'THERE IS NOT A SINGLE FAULT, THERE IS A FAULT ZONE'

Bektaş also made evaluations about the structure of the Savrun Fault and stated that it would not be correct to talk about a single fault in the region. "According to the preliminary data, at the moment, Savrun is on the fault. In fact, this Savrun fault is very controversial. Here is such a fault zone. Here we need to talk about a fault zone, not a fault. In other words, we need to talk about parallel faults. It is not a single fault. There are fault zones parallel to each other," he said.

'THREE SEGMENTS WERE BROKEN IN A ROW'

Bektaş also drew attention to the segments in the parallel fault zone in the region. "These segments, 3 segments, have now broken one after the other. Can these segments broken one after the other cause a larger earthquake? It is possible," said Bektaş, adding that the past behavior of the region should still be taken into consideration. Bektaş said, "But I repeat. These medium-sized earthquakes had been happening in the same place in this region for 3 years and were not coming back. In other words, there was no such escalation."

'THEY STARTED FROM 4 AND TURNED TO 5, WHICH MADE US UNCERTAIN'

Pointing out that the latest earthquake series is different from the previous earthquake, Bektaş emphasized that the successive increase in magnitudes should be monitored. "Now this made me a little uneasy. The fact that it started from 4th to 5th in a row made us uneasy," said Bektaş, and also shared his own assessment about the earthquake that the Savrun Fault Zone could produce. "And I personally think that the earthquake that such a fault in this zone can produce is 6 or 6 plus. But I repeat, there is a possibility of an earthquake between 6 and 7. It is not possible to deny this," he said.

'WE NEED TO WATCH CALMLY'

Bektaş said that especially the occurrence of three consecutive earthquakes in the same region requires the evaluation of the possibility of a larger earthquake. "So, especially the occurrence of three consecutive earthquakes in the same place shows us this possibility. We need to watch calmly to understand this," he said. Pointing out that the Savrun Fault had not behaved like this before, Bektaş said, "The Savrun Fault had never behaved like this before."

PROF DR: SÜLEYMAN PAMPAL: THESE ARE NOT THE EARTHQUAKES WE EXPECTED

Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal stated that there was not as much distance between the earthquakes that occurred in Adana and Osmaniye as thought, and said that the earthquakes occurred within the same tectonic system. Pampal reminded that the first earthquake in Adana occurred at 14.19 with a magnitude of 4.8, the second earthquake occurred at 14.36 with a magnitude of 4.9, and the earthquake in Osmaniye occurred at 14.43 with a magnitude of 5.2. In his assessment of the location of the earthquake in Adana, Pampal said, "In the immediate south of Adana-Şahinbeyli, 10-15 km south of Adana, in the region called Ayvacık, there is a fault that I call the Yardibi Fault. It is an active fault in the east-west direction."

'NO NEED TO PANIC'

Pampal said that the earthquakes that occurred in Adana and Osmaniye in different cities should not be understood as two separate earthquakes in the region, independent of each other. Pampal stated that the region where the earthquake occurred in Osmaniye was located approximately 15 kilometers south of the place where the earthquake occurred in Adana, and drew attention to the characteristics of the faults in the region. Pampal said, "So these two earthquakes are faults within the same system, the tectonic system. In that respect, they happened once in Adana and once in Osmaniye. There is no need to panic."

Pampal stated that the earthquakes that occurred were connected to faults that were previously known in the region and whose features had been studied. "Earthquakes occur in the same region, very close to each other. These are not earthquakes that we do not expect, nor faults that we do not know about," said Pampal, adding that these faults are not faults that can produce an earthquake of magnitude 7-8. Pampal said that he has been stating for years that the faults in question could mostly produce earthquakes of magnitude 5-6.

"We know their features. These are not faults that can produce earthquakes of magnitude 7-8. I have been saying for years that they can produce earthquakes of magnitude 5-6," he said.

'THE REGION IS TECTONICALLY ACTIVE'

Making evaluations about the earthquake potential in the region, Pampal stated that the features of the faults in the south are similar. However, pointing out that there is a different fault in the north, Pampal said that the possibility of a larger earthquake here should not be ignored. Pampal said, "But there is a larger fault in the north, around Tayinbeyli, which we call the Yardibi Fault, for which we have carried out field work. Unfortunately, the possibility of a slightly larger earthquake here should not be ignored."

'WE KNOW THE EXISTENCE OF MANY FAULTS'

Pampal emphasized that the region is tectonically active and said that he had previously drawn attention to this issue at the information conference he held in Ceyhan. "So, unfortunately, the region is tectonically active. We know that there are many faults that will produce earthquakes with an average magnitude of up to 6 or more than 6," he said. Pampal also stated that the characteristics of the faults in the region are different from each other.

'IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BIGGER EARTHQUAKES'

One of the points that Pampal drew attention to was the Yardibi Fault in the north, which he stated that he had carried out field studies on. Stating that there is a larger fault passing in the east-west direction from the near south of the Göksun-Şahinbeyli line, Pampal stated that this fault has the potential to produce a larger earthquake if it moves.

Pampal said, "There is a slightly larger fault in the north, that is, passing in the east-west direction from the near south of the Göksun-Şahinbeyli line. I named it Yardibi Fault. It has not become official yet, but it will become official if we publish it. If this fault moves, it has the potential to produce a slightly larger earthquake." Pampal concluded his words by saying, "But of course we hope it won't happen like this."