After the earthquakes that occurred one after another in Adana and Osmaniye, seismologist Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan made evaluations on Halk TV.
Stating that two earthquakes of 4.8 and 4.9 magnitude occurred in Adana, 17 minutes apart, and then a 5.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in Osmaniye, Ercan pointed out that the tremors occurred in the same region.
“IT HAS BECOME AN EARTHQUAKE STORM”
Ercan said that he considered the first 4.8 magnitude earthquake as an aftershock, but the picture changed with the subsequent 4.9 and 5.2 magnitude earthquakes, and said:
"At first, I considered the 4.8 earthquake as an aftershock. When another 4.9 occurred, the situation changed a bit. And after that, another 5.2 occurred. These are earthquakes in the same region.
Now the image has become an earthquake storm and the magnitude of the earthquake is increasing. This means that the magnitude 4.8 and 4.9 earthquakes appear to be foreshocks.
Now will this result in a bigger earthquake? Frankly, it is not possible to know this scientifically right now. However, it poses a very important situation right now. So, if a big earthquake comes after this, it would not be surprising for earthquake scientists.”
“THE REGION NEEDS TO BE RESTED”
Ercan stated that the region should be closely monitored scientifically after the earthquakes. Drawing attention to the voltage distribution in the region after the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, Ercan stated that the region is a "potential earthquake zone".
Ercan said:
"After the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, most of the tension in this region shifted to this region. Therefore, this is a potential earthquake zone for us. Therefore, we are worried about whether a larger earthquake will occur with a rupture here.
However, we currently do not have any information to warn that such an earthquake is coming. Now, of course, the governorship of the province will decide on this issue. There are AFAD's geophysics teams that I can recommend scientifically.
These geophysics teams need to immediately create a seismological network and listen to this region. Both Kandilli and AFAD already have listening networks in this region, networks to listen to the tension on the ground. But this network needs to be tightened in this region immediately. “It needs to be made more frequent.”
Ercan also said that 12 parameters need to be measured in order to make an assessment as to whether an earthquake will occur or not.
“IT WILL NOT BE DESTRUCTIVE UNLESS IT REACHES 6.3-6.4”
Making evaluations about the destructiveness of earthquakes, Ercan pointed out magnitudes of 6.3-6.4 as the threshold value for the region.
Ercan said, "The destructiveness threshold value in this region is 6.3 to 6.4. An earthquake will not be destructive in Adana and its surroundings and Osmaniye unless it reaches 6.3 to 6.4. These 5.2 earthquakes can only be overcome by wall cracks in poorly constructed buildings, chimney collapses or cracks in the minarets of mosques. But if it reaches 6.3 to 6.4, then we are talking about destructiveness."
“IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THERE IS A BIGGER EARTHQUAKE”
Arguing that some of the tension shifted towards Adana after the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, Ercan underlined that it cannot be known at this stage whether the current earthquakes are the precursors of a larger earthquake.
Ercan used the following statements:
“It would not be surprising for us if there was a larger earthquake, because after the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, some of the tension shifted towards Adana.
We do not know whether these earthquakes are precursors of a larger earthquake. But if it happens, it wouldn't be a surprise to us. "Now I wish we knew so we could tell."
“SAYING THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN IS NEGLIGENCE”
Stating that the tremors in the region may end in the form of an "earthquake storm", but the possibility of a larger earthquake should not be ignored, Ercan emphasized once again that a definitive earthquake prediction cannot be made.
Ercan continued his words as follows:
"In other words, it comes and goes like an earthquake storm. But even if it does not pass and results in a major earthquake, it would not be a surprise for us. Saying 'Nothing will happen, don't worry' means neglecting this matter. Therefore, as I suggested at the beginning, AFAD can immediately establish a detailed geophysical network here and reveal the tension distribution of the earth and where a rupture is expected."
