Brazilian election: Bolsonaro’s son Flavio leads Lula in first round and will enter second round

In this past Sunday's election, according to the provisional results of almost all votes, Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, received about 47% of the votes, leading the current President Lula. Lula's vote share was about 45%, more than 2 million votes less than Flavio Bolsonaro. Neither of them achieved an absolute majority, so they will enter the second round of elections on October 25.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, said after the election: "Brazil wants change." He commented that the election results were people's call for political change. He also declared that the era of Lula's Workers' Party was over. Lula admitted that he had previously believed that victory or defeat would be decided in the first round of the election. The 80-year-old said that now a new campaign begins: "We have entered overtime."

Judging from Brazil's past electoral history, the candidate who leads in the first round of elections often wins the second round of elections.

Bolsonaro victory brings Brazil closer to Washington

The policy represented by Lula is to continue strengthening social welfare, public investment and the role of the state since 2023. The former union leader was in power in Brazil from 2003-2010. Now under Lula's third term, Brazil has seen lower unemployment and less deforestation in the Amazon. But at the same time, the cost of living is rising, state spending is high, and government debt is high.

Flavio Bolsonaro's Liberal Party has promised to cut state spending and crack down on crime. His father was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for the attempted coup. One of Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign promises was an amnesty for fathers.

Senators, representatives and governors were also elected on Sunday. Other members of the Bolsonaro family have also found success, such as former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro being elected to the Senate. In addition, Carlos Bolsonaro, another son of former President Bolsonaro, was also elected to the Senate.

Public safety is one of the most important issues in this election campaign. Drug cartels control parts of the country. Violence against women is also a big social problem. During his election campaign, Flavio Bolsonaro promised to expand prisons to hold an additional 500,000 prisoners and build maximum-security prisons similar to those in El Salvador.

Foreign policy is also part of the campaign. U.S. President Trump has expressed support for former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and criticized his judicial pursuit. Flavio Bolsonaro has met with Trump at the White House.

If Flavio Bolsonaro is elected, Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, will move closer to Washington. This means that Trump’s influence in Latin America will be significantly strengthened.