Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came to Egypt, on Tuesday, in light of escalating regional tensions and increasing threats to the Kingdom’s security and energy and trade paths in the region.
After an official reception and a closed meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, the two sides stressed that “the current circumstances require more solidarity and coordination between the two countries,” amid repeated Egyptian affirmation that Saudi Arabia’s security is part of Egyptian national security, and a rejection of any threats targeting the Kingdom or freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
In the Egyptian presidency’s statement about the visit, it was stated that the interests of Cairo and Riyadh and their common goals are based on an “absolute understanding.” However, experts who spoke to the BBC believe that what happened behind closed doors may have exceeded what was stated in the official statements regarding the nature of the role that Riyadh hopes Cairo will play in facing the escalating challenges.
Meaning of timing
Bin Salman’s visit to Egypt this time comes in light of critical developments in the Yemeni file and the security of the Red Sea.
The cities of southern Saudi Arabia and vital installations are within the range of fire from the Yemeni Houthi group, while the movement’s control has extended to the southern entrance to the Red Sea, after they entered pivotal cities and islands in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its surroundings.
The sudden Houthi presence in Bab al-Mandab, one of the most important sea lanes in the world, threatened the movement of trade and, more importantly, for Saudi Arabia, disrupted the flow of its oil exports.
Since the start of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, Saudi Arabia has boosted its oil exports through the Red Sea ports, specifically the port of Yanbu, towards Asia in the south through Bab al-Mandab, and Europe in the north through the Suez Canal.
Saudi crude oil shipments from the port of Yanbu on the sea fell sharply to 1.5 million barrels per day last August after the Houthis began targeting Saudi ships in the Red Sea, after they had reached 3.8 million barrels per day between March and last July.
Why was Egypt absent from the tripartite Mecca Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan?
Beyond diplomacy
In his interview with the BBC, writer and member of the Saudi Political Science Association, Suleiman Al-Aqili, believes that the security disturbance in Bab al-Mandab is a common challenge for the two countries, as in addition to its importance to Riyadh, it is the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, one of the most important foreign exchange resources in Egypt.
Therefore, in his interview with the BBC, Al-Aqili said that the situation in Bab al-Mandab is pushing the two countries towards “joint defense coordination,” which includes “field work,” such as confronting the Houthi marches that hide from aerial monitoring networks and strike Saudi cities.”
The coalition led by Riyadh to support the Yemeni government announced that attacks launched by the Houthis using ballistic missiles and drones resulted in the injury of 13 civilians in southern Saudi Arabia on Monday, and coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki threatened the Houthis to respond “responsibly and firmly.”
The Houthis announce the downing of a Saudi warplane in Ma’rib Governorate, and the military coalition intercepts a drone near Mecca.
Neil Quilliam, a researcher in the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, agrees that Riyadh’s desire now goes beyond political or diplomatic support, but rather “is looking for a more practical Egyptian role in securing the Red Sea and confronting the escalating Houthi threats.”
He adds that one of the main goals of the visit is that the Crown Prince sought to find out whether Cairo is ready to enhance security, maritime and intelligence cooperation, at a time when Riyadh considers that the security of the Red Sea is no longer only a Saudi issue but rather a regional and international challenge.
Meanwhile, Hussein Haridi, the former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister, in his interview with the BBC about the form of Saudi-Egyptian cooperation in Bab al-Mandab, was satisfied that it was “coordination at the highest level,” and that Egyptian assistance in stopping attacks on Saudi targets could be achieved through “contacts with the Iranian government that supports the Houthis.”
Egyptian ports...Saudi oil portal
Saudi oil incurred additional losses after the east-west line extending between the Gulf in the east and the Red Sea in the west, which is considered the main oil artery between the west and east of the Kingdom, was damaged.
A few days ago, Saudi Arabia announced the suspension of oil supplies through the pipeline following its targeting by drones launched from inside Iraq.
Al-Aqili believes that the East-West line was originally dependent on the Egyptian role in transporting oil coming from Yanbu between the Egyptian ports on the Red and Mediterranean Seas, and that Egypt was directly harmed by its targeting.
On the other hand, former Egyptian diplomat Hussein Haridi believes that Egypt can offer a lot to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in providing means to defend the pipeline (East-West), also “through diplomacy, communications and mediation.”
Transporting Saudi oil, after the damage to the Strait of Hormuz in the east of the Kingdom, depends on transporting it via the East-West Pipeline, up to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, and from there either to the Suez Canal or via Egyptian ports on the Red Sea to the SUMED pipeline, reaching the Mediterranean Sea.
The SUMED line extends over a distance of 320 kilometers from the port of Ain Sokhna on the Gulf of Suez to the port of Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean Sea, with a maximum capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day.
The Egyptian government owns 50% of the shares of the company operating it, compared to 15% for Saudi Aramco, 15% for each of Kuwait and the Emirates, and 5% for Qatar Energy.
Flows through the pipeline have jumped by 150% since the outbreak of the Iran-US war, reaching its maximum capacity by last April, compared to about one million barrels per day before the war.
The void in the Red Sea
