There is a clear dichotomy in Saxony-Anhalt: either you want the AfD. Or you are for one of the other parties - and therefore expressly against the AfD. This can be seen in a whole series of questions that infratest dimap asked eligible voters on behalf of ARD on election day or the days before.
For example, when it comes to the question of who should lead the future state government. 41 percent want the AfD - and these are almost exclusively people who voted for the AfD. 46 percent are in favor of a CDU-led government. And they come not only from the CDU camp, but also from the SPD, the Greens and the Left. If there were a possible direct election of the Prime Minister, the country would be just as divided.
AfD is ahead in all age groups
Even if it is not yet clear on election evening who will lead the government: the overwhelming election winner is the AfD, which more than doubled its result from 2021 - to 44 percent. She managed to get votes on a large scale from people who did not vote in 2021. But according to the first figures on voter migration, she also took a lot of votes from the CDU. The AfD is the strongest force in all age groups - only among those over 70 is the CDU on par.
The success has a lot to do with the fact that the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is now considered to have more authority in almost all policy areas than other parties. This also applies to important areas that were not previously considered a focus of the AfD - such as economic policy.
There were plenty of warnings from experts that an AfD government would have negative consequences for the economy - simply because of its anti-immigrant policies. However, many eligible voters in Saxony-Anhalt see it differently. In the 2021 election, only 8 percent believed the AfD had the best solutions for the economy, but now that figure has risen to 30 percent - two percentage points more than the CDU.
“Modernization” but also “combustion engine”
But what economic policy does the AfD actually want? Since it has not yet held government responsibility anywhere, the only thing left to assess is the election program, which the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt confidently calls the “government program”. In various places there are suggestions that have to do with the economy, but overall they do not reveal a clear line.
On the one hand, the AfD calls for a "modernization and future-proof positioning of the business location", but at the same time it explicitly relies on things like the combustion engine - and thus on yesterday's technology, which is considered to be a main reason for the current problems of German car companies. When it comes to other proposals, the program remains rather vague - for example when it comes to the question of how exactly "the insolvency and migration of small and medium-sized companies" should be stopped or what an end to the "academization mania" should contribute to economic growth. Where the AfD is specific in its program, the effects are likely to be manageable, for example with a seal of quality “Made in Saxony-Anhalt”.
The AfD wants to solve the problem of the shortage of skilled workers, among other things, through "a turnaround in the birth rate", which, of course, could only make itself felt on the labor market in two decades at the earliest. The AfD, on the other hand, would like to get rid of “specialists who are foreign to the culture” - which in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to particularly affect doctors at hospitals. In many places in its program for Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD also calls for political decisions that are not made at the state level - such as an end to the Russia sanctions.
Classic surveys cannot determine whether people come to their conclusions based on their gut instinct or whether they have intensively studied the parties' election programs. From the voters' perspective, however, the CDU has clearly lost competence when it comes to the economy, while the AfD has gained massively.
Support in our own camp for a Russia-friendly course
However, the economy was not the most important issue in this election. People consider social security - and peace in Europe - to be more important. This will definitely not be decided in Magdeburg, but primarily in Moscow. Nevertheless, the AfD focused heavily on this issue in the state election campaign and positioned itself in a Russia-friendly manner.
When it comes to the question of who can best secure peace, the AfD is ahead of all other parties in the perception of those eligible to vote. And 57 percent think it's good that the AfD no longer wants to supply weapons to Ukraine, which is attacked by Russia - and 92 percent of AfD supporters do so.
A third of AfD supporters believe that Germany's security is also threatened by Russia. But two thirds - and therefore the majority of AfD supporters - do not do that. For other parties the trend is exactly the opposite.
For AfD supporters in the middle - dangerous for many others
The fact that the state association in Saxony-Anhalt is very far to the right even by AfD standards and is classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has only partially deterred voters - here the dichotomy mentioned at the beginning is again evident: around half of those eligible to vote say that an AfD state government would be a threat to democracy and the rule of law. But these are almost exclusively people who did not vote for the AfD. The AfD supporters, on the other hand, predominantly locate their party in the middle of the party spectrum - and not on the far right.
The appearance of the top candidate Ulrich Siegmund, who does not present himself as a hardliner, but rather close to the citizens and usually in a good mood, may have contributed to this.
Feeling of “carer” conveyed
Apparently many people in the country do not share this good mood. What is striking is that people in Saxony-Anhalt feel very disadvantaged - significantly more so than the national average. 51 percent of them believe that they get too little compared to other people in Germany. For AfD supporters it is even 66 percent.
The fact that the AfD benefits greatly from dissatisfaction has been shown time and again in election analyzes for years. In Saxony-Anhalt, the number of dissatisfied people is currently particularly high - and the AfD relied heavily on this during the election campaign and tried to give those eligible to vote the feeling of "careers" - with success even outside of their own camp: 54 percent say that the AfD is closer to the concerns of citizens than other parties - and among AfD supporters the figure is even 94 percent.
It is particularly well received in the country's smaller cities and towns, many of which are struggling with migration and vacancies. However, in the state's two major cities - Magdeburg and Halle - it performs below average.
CDU has to take a “reminder” for the federal government
The big loser in the election is the CDU, which roughly halved its result - to a good 17 percent. Many of her own supporters are also extremely disappointed with her - less with the state CDU than with the federal CDU. Two thirds of CDU voters say that “their” party promised a lot before the federal election but delivered little. If you ask all eligible voters, this verdict is even more devastating - here it is more than 80 percent.
A main problem for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt was that the current black-red federal government is extremely unpopular - and that the CDU is mainly blamed for this. 59 percent say the federal government deserves a lesson in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. One would assume that this desire is least pronounced among supporters of the ruling party. But that is not the case: many in the CDU camp also believe it is appropriate to punish the federal government in the state elections. Only among the Green Party supporters hardly anyone thinks anything of such teachings.
CDU-led state government also rated poorly
Compared to the federal government, the state government is still doing reasonably well. In Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU currently governs in a coalition with the SPD and FDP - and 31 percent are satisfied with their work.
However, a comparison with other state governments shows that this is also a poor result: 52 percent were satisfied with the green-black party in Baden-Württemberg in the March election.
Schulze's position on pensions is well received
However, the CDU cannot benefit from an “incumbency bonus” that a ruling Prime Minister often has in elections simply through popularity. Sven Schulze has only been in office since January and a comparatively large number of voters have no clear opinion about him. 71 percent of those eligible to vote like the fact that he sometimes opposes the federal government's policies - for example when it comes to pension reform.
The CDU can benefit from the demographics in Saxony-Anhalt. In no other federal state is the average age so high - and the CDU is particularly well received among older age groups.
Tactical voters help the SPD and the Greens
The SPD and the Greens have to come to terms with the bitter realization that they owe their result to a considerable extent to tactical voting. 68 percent of Green Party voters say that their main reason for voting was to prevent an AfD prime minister. Among SPD voters it was even 78 percent. According to preliminary voter migration, many of these voters came from the CDU.
The Greens still have a core issue, the SPD does not
The Greens, who were able to clearly improve their election results compared to 2021, can at least rely on the fact that they are the undisputed number 1 when it comes to their core issue of climate/environment. However, this issue did not play a major role for the majority of eligible voters.
The traditional SPD core issue of “social security” is different. That was by far the most important issue in the election - but the SPD is no longer given much credit for it. She can slightly improve her result from the previous election - but will once again have one of the worst results she has ever had in state elections.
The AfD is more likely to be considered a “carer” than the Left
The Left loses slightly and, like the Greens and SPD, remains well below the 10 percent mark. It is a far cry from the values it achieved in previous elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
In 2006 and 2011 it received 24.1 and 23.7 percent respectively. At that time it still had the image of the “East German caretaker party”. She has now largely ceded that to the AfD. 36 percent say that the AfD best represents the interests of East Germany, while only 16 percent of the Left say this.
Left neglects “the common people”
For a long time, the Left was also considered the party that was particularly committed to social justice. But here too it has now clearly been overtaken by the AfD. A statement in the surveys is particularly interesting here: 53 percent of those eligible to vote say that the Left has "lost sight of the concerns of ordinary people" - so it has essentially squandered its core brand. This probably has a lot to do with the fact that parts of the party, which are very present in (social) media, are currently primarily discussing Gaza or the expropriation of housing companies.
This has little to do with everyday life and the problems of people in Saxony-Anhalt, which is largely rural. And so the left gets votes, especially in the country's two major cities. In comparison, the Left has gained ground among younger groups of voters, but has lost significantly among older groups.
And now?
One thing is clear on election evening: it is not enough for an AfD sole government. Otherwise, it is still completely unclear what a future state government could look like. The tipping point could be the BSW, which, according to projections, will barely make it into the state parliament.
And what should the parties do with the election results? Here too, the division of the country into two camps can be seen again - namely in a question that infratest dimap asked the people of Saxony-Anhalt shortly before the election: Should the Left elect a CDU Prime Minister if no other government can be formed? A clear majority of supporters of the CDU, Left, SPD and Greens say: yes. The majority of AfD supporters say: no.
