AfD in Saxony-Anhalt narrowly misses out on an absolute majority – a political turning point for Germany

A deep turning point for Germany

According to the post-election surveys, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt missed an absolute majority. But never before in the history of the Federal Republic has a party that wants to implement right-wing extremist policies been so close to power. If the post-election surveys are confirmed later in the evening, it will not be enough for top candidate Ulrich Siegmund to be elected Prime Minister on his own. However, only a few mandates are missing. Before the election, the AfD had spread the word that in this case there could be defections of MPs from the CDU. The BSW could also offer itself to help Siegmund come to power.

If it remains the case that the AfD narrowly misses a majority and a majority against the party forms in the state parliament, their job will be very difficult. Representatives are usually absent from votes every now and then, for example because they are sick. The AfD could use such situations to gain the majority.

The AfD election result is seen by some as a milestone in the party's normalization. For a long time, many of their voters did not identify themselves. That was no longer the case in the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt. The result will also influence the discussions about the so-called firewall and an AfD ban procedure. Brandmauer believes that he will not form a majority with the AfD. Tolerating an AfD minority government is therefore out of the question. Even a CDU minority government would not be allowed to pass laws with the AfD if the firewall is to be in place.

The AfD wins more strongly than ever before in a state election

The success of the AfD has to do with widespread dissatisfaction among the population with the established parties as well as uncertainty and fears of relegation. However, it is probably also due to the top candidate Ulrich Siegmund that the party, which the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt classified as definitely right-wing extremist, performed so well.

The 35-year-old trained wholesaler and former distributor of room fragrances had set out to become the youngest prime minister in a German federal state. During the election campaign, Siegmund fans filled the market squares in Saxony-Anhalt, and the candidate persistently posed for selfies. Siegmund simply smiled away all the allegations against him, for example regarding his contacts in the right-wing extremist scene. This obviously caught the attention of many voters.

Saxony-Anhalt is facing an extremely difficult task of forming a government

As long as all votes have not been counted, the question of who will govern Saxony-Anhalt in the future remains open. The AfD is scraping by an absolute majority; a minority government tolerated by the BSW would also be conceivable. To do this, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance would actually have to make it past the five percent hurdle, which is currently unclear.

If the AfD misses an absolute majority - and the BSW misses entry into parliament - the initiative would again lie with the CDU. Then a minority government led by the current Prime Minister Sven Schulze would be conceivable. But things get complicated there too. Throughout the entire election campaign, the CDU avoided taking a clear position on the question of cooperation with the Left. But this would be absolutely necessary if Schulze wanted to remain Prime Minister. He could form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens and be tolerated by the left. They have already shown themselves to be open to such a model.

The problem is that the 2018 incompatibility decision actually prohibits the CDU from working with the Left. And even if the party already practices this in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt and is tolerated by the left, there are vehement opponents of this variant in the Saxony-Anhalt CDU. In addition, Schulze is seriously injured after the CDU's extremely weak performance as party leader and prime minister.

Rarely has a CDU election campaign flopped like this

One cannot accuse Schulze of being inactive during the election campaign. The Prime Minister was constantly traveling around the country, mostly on his bicycle, he shook countless hands and was never above a chat. It didn't help him. The head of government, who took over the office from Reiner Haseloff in January, achieved good popularity ratings in the ARD post-election survey*. From the perspective of CDU voters, the best thing about the Christian Democrats was their candidate Schulze. But it wasn't enough. The party lost many voters to the AfD.

His decision to distance himself from the federal government subsequently proved to be in vain. The unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz attended appointments in Saxony-Anhalt, but was virtually hidden from the voters. The fact that Schulze, together with the other two CDU Eastern Prime Ministers, rebelled against the federal government's plan to abolish pensions at 63 obviously had no effect on the election. On the contrary: the CDU achieved its worst result in Saxony-Anhalt since reunification.

The little ones surprisingly catch up

Not only the AfD benefits from the CDU's poor performance, the SPD and the Greens are also surprisingly catching up compared to the surveys. Together with the Left, they are on a par between eight and ten percent, so the smaller parties will become an important factor in the coming exploratory talks.

The biggest surprise could still come from the BSW, which is scratching the five percent hurdle - although not a single survey saw the divided party, which experienced a scandal in Thuringia just a few days ago, there. If she manages to make the leap, she could even end up helping the AfD to power.

Chancellor Merz now has a problem

The election result is likely to be blamed on Chancellor and CDU leader Merz. His survey results were described on ARD as “catastrophic”. Merz is already seen as weakened in the CDU.

In addition, Merz is now faced with a difficult situation in Saxony-Anhalt. The CDU federal leader cannot directly order how the state CDU behaves. The power lies with the officials of the regional association. Merz is therefore faced with a dilemma. If he interferes too much in the difficult post-election talks in Magdeburg, it could provoke resistance from the Saxony-Anhalt Christian Democrats, who do not want to be dictated to by Berlin. If he doesn't get involved enough, other regional associations could accuse him of showing too little leadership in an explosive situation.

It would be particularly tricky if CDU officials from Saxony-Anhalt called for a minority government that could also vote with the AfD in the state parliament. Collaboration with the AfD, however formal or informal, is seen as a red line by many CDU voters, members and officials.

The SPD is facing a dispute over its direction

The SPD, which governs the federal government with the CDU, sees itself as a party that fights right-wing extremism. The party leadership will therefore now look closely at whether the Saxony-Anhalt CDU stands by the firewall - or whether it will discuss cooperation with the AfD in view of the election results. In this case, the SPD would expect CDU leader Merz to take tough action against these party members. The SPD result is at the weak level of the previous state election.

Nervousness is growing in the SPD as to whether the course is still right. Some are calling for a clear left-wing course: the planned reforms of the welfare state, which also mean cuts, would drive voters to the right-wing extremists. This group is likely to demand that these plans be stopped. Other Social Democrats instead accuse their party of failings in migration policy: The SPD lost voters because it did not address problems with migration.

The dispute could erupt among management staff. The party leaders Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas are considered counted. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will vote in two weeks. SPD top candidate Manuela Schwesig is well above the party's national trend in surveys, which makes her a beacon of hope for many Social Democrats. In order not to burden the election campaign in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with internal debates, there could be no leadership dispute in the party until then.

*Editor's note: The personality values ​​for Schulze from the post-election survey were added after the first publication.