After seismic shift in US, a new Congress but an old consensus

The shift in the US Congressional control is a pivotal moment for Washington, but its impact on the India-US strategic partnership will likely be more subtle than disruptive. With President Trump retaining executive control over US foreign policy, India will need to guard against any further complication of the West Asia conflict.

The relationship rests on bipartisan support and consensus built around Indo-Pacific cooperation amid Chinese assertiveness, along with people-to-people contacts and technology and defence ties. Electoral cycles have done little to deter this momentum built over the past 25 years.

However, despite this core alignment, the strategic partnership also hit its lowest ebb in decades under the second Trump administration over issues like asymmetrical trade demands, India's reluctance to abandon its energy ties with Russia, US immigration policies and also its Pakistan outreach leading effectively to the re-hyphenation of its approach to the region.

To what extent a tighter Congressional scrutiny of Trump's actions, including on issues related to Iran and Ukraine, can constrain his foreign policy is unclear, as the legislative turnaround is unlikely to dent his broad executive authority over US diplomacy and military even in the face of a domestic pushback.

The Asean summit this month in Manila - where PM Modi will be present - might indicate how the midterm results could reshape Trump's approach to global affairs. Of immediate interest not just for India but also Japan and Australia will be the Quad leaders' summit, scheduled for Nov 16 on the margins of Asean. Modi may also have a bilateral with Trump.

It was India's turn to host the leaders' summit but Trump's apparent reluctance to travel to New Delhi amid bilateral trade discord delayed the event, leading many to conclude that Trump had downgraded Quad to pursue closer ties with Beijing.

The Manila summit will be of particular significance, as it will take place in the middle of the Philippines' continued maritime tensions with Beijing, and days before Trump's visit to China for the APEC leaders' meeting.

A Democratic majority could also seek to curb the Trump administration's unilateral tariff actions, ensuring some reprieve for India. It could also offer a check against restrictive immigration legislation, providing relief potentially for high-skilled Indian professionals and H-1B visa holders. Democrats have traditionally been more vocal or even critical of India on human rights and other internal issues, but this has rarely been a deal-breaker. India may now have to balance its engagement with the White House though by cultivating ties with key Democratic committee chairs.