
AI-generated summary
The report points out that geopolitical conflicts and the AI technology revolution have ended the era when global supply chains were overly dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Global technology giants have turned to emphasizing supply chain resilience, information security and tariff hedging.
Source: Central Bank Research Report
[Reporter Gao Jiahe/Taipei Report] The convergence of two major waves, geopolitical conflict and the AI technology revolution, has officially ended the old era of excessive reliance on "China's centralized manufacturing" in the global supply chain. Global technology giants have shifted their emphasis on supply chain resilience, information security, and tariff hedging. With the world's most complete semiconductor wafer manufacturing, advanced packaging, and system integration ecosystem, Taiwan has successfully integrated into the U.S. security regulations and AI infrastructure explosion period. Its status has jumped from a component supplier in the past to the world's "AI hardware manufacturing and assembly core."
The central bank's report estimates that Taiwan's global trade surplus will exceed US$200 billion in 2026, reaching US$205.4 billion, up to 4.2 times that of 2018 (US$49.2 billion).
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As the United States actively builds AI infrastructure, the demand for imports of information and communication products has surged. It is estimated that the United States’ global imports will reach US$1.1 trillion in 2026. Among them, Taiwan has become the third largest trade importer of the United States (US imports to Taiwan are estimated to reach US$219.2 billion in 2026), second only to Vietnam (US$238 billion) and Mexico (US$221 billion), and surpassing China (US$156.4 billion).
Taiwan has also become a new hub for the international division of labor. The finished AI server products exported to the United States are highly integrated with Taiwan's local chip manufacturing and advanced packaging technology, and simultaneously drive an international cycle of purchasing memory from South Korea, importing materials and equipment from Japan, and performing mid- and low-level processing from ASEAN, fully establishing Taiwan's core position as the center of the global AI supply chain.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Taiwan’s global trade excess will reach US$205.4 billion in 2026
Likely · Within years
U.S. trade with Taiwan will reach US$219.2 billion in 2026
Likely · Within years

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Benefiting from the wave of generative AI, Taiwan's trade surplus with the United States reached US$140.74 billion from January to August 2026, an annual increase of US$55.4 billion; Taiwan's trade with ASEAN exceeded US$44.66 billion, a new high for the same period. At the same time, due to the surge in demand for AI high-bandwidth memory, Taiwan's imports from South Korea increased to US$42.21 billion, and its imports from Japan exceeded US$19.51 billion. South Korea and Japan have become the top two sources of trade deficit.

A central bank research report pointed out that due to the impact of U.S. tariff barriers and information security compliance requirements, the traditional triangular trade model of Taiwan's electronics industry, "Taiwan receives orders, China produces, and sells in the United States," is collapsing. A large number of high-tech, security-sensitive and high value-added product lines are produced in Taiwan, while mid- to low-end products are transferred to ASEAN or the United States for local assembly. In 2025, the proportion of export orders produced in Taiwan will reach 52.9%, a record high; the proportion of production in China will drop to 26.2%; the proportion of sales to the United States will drop to 14.8%.