The results of the U.S. midterm elections show that the Democratic Party has taken control of Congress. Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported that Chinese scholars generally believe that Washington’s overall strategy toward Beijing will not fundamentally change as a result. However, on issues such as Taiwan, artificial intelligence (AI), technology export controls, and arms sales to Taiwan, Congress may increase pressure on China and further compress President Trump’s policy space.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, described the election as a "blue wave" for the Democratic Party, which will make Trump face stronger congressional checks and balances during the remainder of his term and gradually become a "lame president."
Zhao Minghao pointed out that after the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, it is expected that after the new Congress takes office in January next year, it will launch investigations into Trump himself, his family and senior officials, and constrain the administration of the White House through legislative and budget reviews.
He believes that the strategic competition between the United States and China has become a consensus between the two parties, and the overall policy direction will not change, but the implementation method may be adjusted. The Democratic-led Congress will further put pressure on China on issues such as Taiwan, AI and export controls, and will also strengthen supervision of the Trump administration's foreign policy towards China.
Zhao Minghao said that AI has become an important issue in this election, covering aspects such as data centers and supervision. In the future, the domestic AI debate in the United States may be more directly linked to the technological competition between the United States and China. The Democratic Party may also use China issues as a political tool to contain Trump, increasing the pressure on Beijing.
On the other hand, Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that even if the Democratic Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives, it will not have a subversive impact on U.S.-China relations. The congressional reshuffle mainly affects Trump's domestic agenda and has a relatively limited impact on foreign policy. The president still retains considerable discretion.
Chen Dongxiao pointed out that the Democratic Party’s primary goal in the next two years will be to check and balance Trump, rather than completely overturning the existing China policy. The two parties have a deep consensus on the strategy of competition with China and lack the motivation to significantly reverse the policy direction. However, he reminded that Congress has long been dissatisfied with the Trump administration's delay in some arms sales to Taiwan. After the election, members of both parties may pressure the executive branch to speed up the arms sales process.
Chen Dongxiao called on Beijing to maintain "strategic composure," noting that neither the United States nor China could afford a nuclear war or comprehensive economic decoupling. He described that the current bilateral relations are still in the "tactical truce" stage and have not yet achieved substantial relaxation, and the U.S.'s economic and technological restrictions on China have not been significantly relaxed.
Reports pointed out that the Trump administration has imposed sanctions and restrictions on more Chinese companies before the midterm elections. Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Shenzhen later this month, which will be their third face-to-face meeting this year.
Chen Dongxiao said that the U.S. political circles have gradually formed a consensus that pressure and containment alone are not enough to manage U.S.-China competition. Both sides must still avoid conflicts and miscalculations through dialogue, rules, and safety guardrails. He suggested that Beijing promote the institutionalization of consensus between the two sides so that U.S.-China relations will not fluctuate significantly with changes in the U.S. political cycle.
