Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, pick, odds, spread: Rivals Crimson Tide, Vols meet in Knoxville

A pair of historic rivals with playoff aspirations are squaring off in a top-15 SEC showdown on Saturday, as No. 6 Alabama travels to No. 14 Tennessee for the Third Saturday in October. The Crimson Tide will be looking to avoid losing consecutive regular season games for the first time since 2007, while the Volunteers will be seeking to snap a four-game home losing streak against ranked opponents.

Alabama (5-1, 3-1 SEC) took a 20-17 home loss to Georgia last week, which leaves the Crimson Tide with a dwindling margin for error entering the second half of their schedule. Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) is coming off an ugly 24-17 win at Arkansas in need of the resume boost that would come with knocking off Alabama.

While Tennessee's defense is thriving midway through the season, facing Alabama will be its toughest test yet. Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell leads the league in passing yards with 1,599 and brings game-changing mobility. Though Alabama star receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams is expected to miss the game due to injury, Bama's offense will still pack a punch that tests Tennessee's secondary.

The Volunteers counter with the nation's No. 15 rushing offense and a languishing passing attack that will need to get better if they are going to pull an upset that would reverberate through the SEC and beyond. With blowout road wins over quality foes Kentucky and Mississippi State already in hand, the Tide will look to keep rolling on the road with their first win in Knoxville since 2020.

Alabama vs. Tennessee: Need to know

Neyland blues: The last time Tennessee beat a ranked team at Neyland Stadium was in 2024, when it edged No. 7 Alabama 24-17. The Vols finished 0-3 at home against ranked opponents last season and fell 20-17 to Texas in Week 4, extending their home losing streak against ranked opponents to four games. But something will have to give as the Crimson Tide have dropped two straight inside Neyland Stadium. Whichever team is smoking, the traditional postgame victory cigars will hit a little different this time.

Tennessee's QB question: Tennessee sophomore quarterback George MacIntyre made his first career start last week in the Volunteers' 24-17 win at Arkansas, stepping in for injured and underperforming freshman Faizon Brandon. Now the question is how long the Volunteers will stick with MacIntyre, who completed 18 of 29 passes for 247 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against the Razorbacks. Regardless of who gets the nod against Alabama, the Crimson Tide's priority will be to slow down the SEC's second-leading rusher, DeSean Bishop, and to make Tennessee's fledgling passing attack prove that it can deliver.

Playoff implications: With a win, Alabama will have an 87.7% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, according to the CBS Sports College Football Playoff Forecaster. A loss would drop that mark to 52.9% and crush Alabama's margin for error. Because the Crimson Tide's strength of schedule lags behind others in the SEC, its case for inclusion as a three-loss team would be shaky. Tennessee's playoff odds would shoot to 51.6% with a win and drop to 16.8% with a loss.

Where to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Location: Neyland Stadium -- Knoxville, Tennessee

TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, picks

Tennessee's defense and run game have carried it to a 5-1 start. Replicating that formula against Alabama won't be possible unless the Crimson Tide shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and special team miscues. Because the Crimson Tide won't respect the Volunteers' passing game, they'll be able to load the box and frustrate Tennessee's ground game, much like Texas did in Week 4. Offensively, Alabama has too much firepower to be fully restrained for four quarters. Look for Bama to pull away in the fourth quarter. Pick: Alabama -8.5