Michigan vs. Penn State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Wolverines, Nittany Lions in desperation mode

Penn State and Michigan will meet on Saturday in a matchup between two teams already in desperation mode midway through the season.

Both began the 2026 season hopeful for the future with a new coach in charge. Six weeks into the season, that hope and optimism have turned into doom and gloom for both programs that enter Week 7 on losing streaks in Big Ten play.

The Wolverines began the season with a controversial win before beating Oklahoma in Week 2 for what seemed, at the time, like Kyle Whittingham's first signature win in Ann Arbor. However, successive losses to Iowa and Minnesota, where the offense has looked inept, have raised the temperature under Whittingham just five games into his tenure.

The Nittany Lions had a lengthy coaching search before finally bringing in Matt Campbell from Iowa State, and Penn State fans expected a swift return to Big Ten contention. Three consecutive losses to open conference play have already raised questions about Campbell's fit in State College, and he finds himself in desperation mode heading on the road into a hostile environment.

For years, Penn State vs. Michigan was one of the biggest games of the year in the old Big Ten East. This year, what it lacks in intrigue regarding the College Football Playoff race, it makes up for in what it will tell us about the trajectory of two traditional Big Ten powers. The winner will be able to let out a sigh of relief, while the loser will be staring down a fight just to make it to a bowl game in 2026.

Michigan vs. Penn State: Need to know

Bryce Underwood as a runner: In Michigan's biggest win of the season against Oklahoma, it was Underwood running the ball that was the difference for the Wolverines. He carried the ball 18 times for 87 yards and one touchdown, which was by far his most productive rushing game of the season. The Penn State defense has struggled this season, and both Aidan Chiles and Colton Joseph have rushed for touchdowns against them for Northwestern and Wisconsin. Throwing the ball consistently hasn't been a strength of the Michigan offense, and in a game they desperately need, look for the Wolverines to try and take advantage of Underwood as a runner at times -- especially in red zone opportunities.

Can Penn State create explosive plays?: Moving the ball on Michigan's defense consistently is a difficult task, and in both of their losses, it was explosives that led to scores for Minnesota and Iowa. Penn State's offense ranks in the middle of the pack in explosive plays this season, but has not been as dynamic since Koby Howard's injury took away their top downfield threat. If the Nittany Lions are going to score against Michigan, they have to find a way to produce some explosive plays. That doesn't always have to mean on offense. Iowa's first touchdown against Michigan came on a punt return. Minnesota forced three turnovers that led to 13 of their 20 points. Penn State will need a handful of chunk plays from the offense and to create some havoc on defense and special teams if they're going to win this game.

Special teams, special teams, special teams: This is the kind of game where special teams matter a bit more than usual -- which is to say, this is going to be Big Ten football heritage on display. The punters on both sides need to be sharp and avoid handing the opponent a short field. With points at a premium, field goal opportunities will need to be converted. And with two offenses that can get stuck in the mud, a big return could swing this game one way or the other. Special teams has not been the strength of the Wolverines this season, as they rank 89th in special teams SP+, while Penn State is in the middle of the pack (49th). The team that wins the special teams battle will gain a considerable advantage, and for underdog Penn State in particular, being sharp in the third phase is a must to win on the road.

Where to watch Michigan vs. Penn State live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Location: Michigan Stadium -- Ann Arbor, Michigan

TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App

Streaming on Paramount+ Premium

Michigan vs. Penn State prediction, picks

There is a "stoppable force vs. movable object" situation happening here with the Michigan offense against the Penn State defense, but I'm banking on the home team dictating the tempo here in a classic Big Ten rock fight. Michigan games have finished with fewer than 40 total points four times in five games -- with the lone exception being against lowly UTEP -- and even against a leaky Nittany Lions defense, it's hard to see this Michigan offense being overly explosive. On the other side, the Wolverines are still stout as ever on defense, and this seems destined to be a tense, one-score game late, with both teams struggling to top 20 points. Pick: Under 42.5