I covered Donald Trump's recent presidential campaigns, winning in 2016, losing in 2020, and winning in 2024. His supporters stood in lines for hours at rallies, and the halls were bursting at the seams. Now Trump is gathering crowds, but even in states where mainly Republican supporters live, he has trouble filling the halls to the brim - this was the case, for example, in Clarksville, Tennessee. If even in Tennessee, on Saturday evening, there is a problem with filling the hall at a rally of Donald Trump, who supports Republicans, it may be a warning signal for him. Especially since Clarksville is located in Montgomery County, which has been clearly Republican for years. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won about 60 percent there. votes. So this is not an area where Republicans need to particularly seek support.
Of course, empty seats at one rally do not determine the mood of voters, but a few weeks before the Congressional elections, such an image may give food for thought. There were also empty seats in Dallas, Texas, during the Republican Party convention. Trump then said from the stage: "Look at these crowds, lying journalists will definitely say there were empty seats." The company that broadcast and delivered the signal from the convention framed the lower levels of the hall, but independent cameras... saw more - also from the moment when President Trump spoke. Of course, it cannot be said that the room was empty. However, we analyze what is changing and look for small signals.
Will Republicans lose the Senate?
Until recently, it was mainly said that Democrats had a chance to take away the majority in the House of Representatives from Republicans. Today, however, a much more serious question arises: can Donald Trump lose control not only of the House of Representatives, but also of the Senate? It would be a political shock in Washington.
Let's explain why this election is so important. The American Congress consists of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Currently, both are under Republican control, which gives Trump much greater opportunities to implement his political agenda. Of course, not everything can be done without obstacles, but his party controls the most important positions and decides on the work of both chambers. On November 3, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators. These elections will decide whether Trump will be able to govern for the next two years with the support of Congress or whether he will have to face a parliament controlled by political opponents.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans have a very slight advantage. Democrats need relatively small gains to take the majority, which is why it has been said for months that the House of Representatives is the most dangerous for Trump's party. However, the situation is starting to look much more interesting in the Senate. Republicans there have a 53-47 advantage, including two independent senators working with Democrats. To take control, Democrats need to win four more seats than they currently have. Just a few months ago it seemed very difficult. The electoral map favored Republicans, and Democrats had few real opportunities to take away their seats.
Now the situation is starting to change. According to the latest analyses, Democrats may gain from two to six additional seats in the Senate. This is a very wide range, but pay attention to one thing: four seats are enough to take a majority. Moreover, Democrats are starting to be competitive in states that were recently considered safe for Republicans - including: about Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio or Texas. Kansas is particularly interesting - a state that has been associated with Republican dominance for decades finds itself in the category of races whose outcome is difficult to predict. That doesn't mean the Democrats will definitely win there. But the very fact that Republicans have to spend money and commit forces to defend such a state shows the scale of their problems.
The president sees what is happening
This brings us to Donald Trump. The US president is perfectly aware that his political future is at stake in these elections. Of course, it does not mean that he may lose office in November, because his term of office continues. The question is whether he will be able to implement his policies over the next two years or whether he will be constantly blocked by Democrats. If Democrats take over the House of Representatives, they will be able to control its committees, open investigations into the administration's actions, subpoena officials for hearings and demand documents. They will also be able to block bills that the president would like to pass through Congress.
If Democrats also take over the Senate, Trump's situation will become even more difficult. Democrats could block the confirmation of many presidential nominees, including federal and judicial nominees. They could also limit its legislative possibilities more effectively. It would be a completely different political situation than the one we are dealing with today.
That's why Trump is now traveling around the United States, holding rallies, meeting with voters and trying to mobilize the Republican electorate. However, a certain paradox appears here. As described by the Washington Post, the president mainly visits places where he enjoys strong support. It's showing up in traditionally Republican states and districts, including: in Tennessee, Texas and Nebraska. There, his presence may mobilize voters, but in more equal districts the situation is completely different. Republican candidates must seek the votes not only of Trump supporters, but also of voters who are independent, moderate, and sometimes disappointed with the policies of both parties. For such voters, Donald Trump is not necessarily an asset.
Reuters analyzed 62 of the most competitive congressional races. It turned out that in 41 of them, Republican candidates distanced themselves from the president in some way. Sometimes they criticized specific decisions of his administration, sometimes they avoided joint appearances. It also happened that they limited the display of Trump's support in their election materials. This is almost two thirds of the analyzed races. Notice how unusual this situation is.
Donald Trump has virtually subjugated the Republican Party over the last decade. His support helped win the primaries, and his criticism could end the political career of the Republican candidate. Now some politicians from the same party come to the conclusion that too close ties with the president may harm them in the November elections. Why? The answer largely lies in the economy and the cost of living. Trump returned to the White House with a promise to improve the financial situation of Americans, promising lower prices, cheaper energy and greater economic stability. Meanwhile, many voters continue to complain about the high cost of living. In addition, there are international tensions, the war with Iran and high fuel prices.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos survey, support for Trump's way in office has dropped to 32%. In the same poll, Democrats led among registered voters ahead of the congressional elections by 44 to 37 percent. This is not a forecast of the distribution of seats, but it shows the scale of the president's political problem. This is why Republicans are in a very difficult position today. On the one hand, they need Trump to mobilize their most loyal voters, and on the other, they fear that his unpopularity may scare away people without whom it is impossible to win in the most even districts.
Donald Trump may find himself in a new political reality
Of course, this does not mean that the Democrats already have victory in their pocket. Republicans have huge campaign funds, have strong structures and can count on a very loyal electorate. And polls, as we have seen time and time again in the United States, do not always correctly predict election outcomes. Winning the Senate in particular will continue to be a difficult task for Democrats. They must not only defend their own seats, but also win in states where Trump won decisive victories. However, the change is clear.
Until recently, the question was: Will Republicans lose the House of Representatives? Today, another question is increasingly emerging: Can they lose the entire Congress? This is probably the most important news for Trump three weeks before the election. The president, who was supposed to be the Republicans' greatest political asset, is becoming a burden for them in parts of the country. His party's politicians are trying to find a way to take advantage of his popularity among his most loyal supporters, and at the same time not pay the price for his unpopularity among other voters.
