The application of a rate of 11.3% for the CBS (Contribution on Goods and Services) will increase the federal tax burden on consumption in 2027 in relation to the collection recorded in recent years, according to calculations made by Folha based on data released by the TCU (Federal Audit Court) on Wednesday (28).
The explanation for this lies in the calculation rules approved by Congress at the government's request, which changed the reference period to measure the tax burden to be maintained, in order to remove the effects of a decision by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) of 2021 that reduced the collection in the following years, the thesis of the century, which excluded ICMS from the PIS and Cofins base — taxes that will be extinguished on January 1st.
To maintain the collection for the ten years ending in 2024 (the last year with data used by the court), for example, a rate of 10.3% would be necessary. During this decade, the burden of taxes involved in the reform was 4.63% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
The rule approved by Congress, however, determines that the charge from the 2012-2021 period be maintained, when the average was 4.99% of GDP.
In terms of revenue, the difference represents almost R$50 billion. The 2027 Budget projections already pointed to an increase in the collection of taxes involved in the reform of 0.4% of GDP (R$58 billion) in relation to estimates for 2026.
The original proposal from the government's technical area that reached Congress envisaged the use of the years 2024 and 2025 as a base, but the Executive itself requested changes to this point during the text's processing.
The TCU report does not contain data for last year, but figures from the National Treasury indicate a value of 4.39% of GDP. In this case, the average charge for the two years would be 4.5% of GDP, which would result in a tax rate of 9.9%.
Economist Sérgio Gobetti —one of the few who anticipated that the CBS would be close to 11%— also calculates that the rate will be around 1 percentage point higher when comparing the decades ending in 2021 and 2024.
He estimates that this will represent an extra revenue of close to R$45 billion. But it highlights that this is practically the same amount of extra revenue estimated based on the drop in tax evasion and planning (tax gap) expected by the TCU.
"It is an increase in revenue, but it does not represent an increase in the tax burden on those who are already paying, but rather on those who are not being taxed", says the economist. Based on data from the TCU, it estimates the values that are currently not reached by current taxes at more than R$500 billion.
The Federal Senate will still analyze the number submitted by the Court of Auditors and has until December 15th to set the CBS rate, through a draft resolution, which does not need to pass through the Chamber.
The legislation does not make it clear how free senators are to change TCU numbers, whose calculations have been assessed as technically correct by experts on the subject.
The Senate will be responsible for annually reviewing the CBS reference rate —which acts as a ceiling for the tax— until 2033, always based on new calculations by the court and updated data on collections. There is no provision for compensation if the revenue recorded in a year is above or below what was projected.
The federal government was not the only one that moved to stop the charge based on the moment of greatest collection. Congress also changed the calculation period for IBS, the tax on goods and services administered by states and municipalities. In this case, the base will be the 2024-2026 three-year period, when many governors raised ICMS rates and cut tax benefits, which increased state revenue.
These data reinforce the expectation that the combined CBS and IBS tax rate will be close to the 29% projected by the Ministry of Finance in 2024. The Tax Reform Secretariat calculated that the percentage would be 26.5% considering the initial proposal, but it reached 28.9% after the expansion of exceptions by Congress.
Parliamentarians then put the first number as a lock, predicting that there will be a review of the exceptions if it is reached. The first review is scheduled for 2031, but Parliament is not obliged to review them.
The former secretary of tax reform, Bernard Appy, projects that the CBS will fall to around 10% in the coming years, when the system is working in practice and there is a drop in tax evasion and tax planning. Another factor for reducing the contribution rate is the expected increase in the collection of the Selective Tax, which will rise to compensate for the end of the additional ICMS on products such as alcoholic beverages and cigarettes.
