Any intensification of El Niño could add new pressures to a food system already grappling with high prices and increasingly challenging climate conditions. The alarm was raised by Mathias Cormann, general secretary of the OECD, who spoke together with chief economist Stefano Scarpetta at the presentation of the Interim Economic Outlook. According to the organization's assessments, there is a 95% probability that a particularly strong El Niño episode will appear by the end of the year. If the phenomenon were to reach exceptional levels, the effects on agricultural production could become even more significant.
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The risk especially concerns some of the areas most exposed to climate effects: southern Africa, South-East Asia and Central America. A worsening of cultivation conditions could reduce the availability of some agricultural raw materials, with repercussions on international markets and, consequently, on food prices. The consequences could be particularly serious for population groups with fewer economic resources and for low-income countries, where access to food is more affected by price increases. For the OECD, a scenario of this type would make coordination between countries and international cooperation even more important.
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Added to this perspective are factors that are already influencing the sector. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to rising costs, while exceptionally high temperatures during the Northern Hemisphere summer caused damage to several cereal crops. Market expectations are therefore already incorporating the possible impact of a more intense El Niño, with upward movements on futures linked to food products.
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The repercussions would not only concern agriculture. In fact, catering too is exposed to growing instability in the availability and costs of raw materials. In Fiumicino, chef Gianfranco Pascucci recalls in particular the difficulties encountered by the fishing sector and restaurateurs: the increase in sea temperatures favors the presence of invasive species and can change the timing, quantity and availability of catches, while climatic anomalies also affect agricultural production. For restaurants and operators in the sector, therefore, the change in climatic conditions translates into greater uncertainty not only on prices, but also on the quality and availability of ingredients.
Not just the OECD. A report from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab also raises the alarm about a Super El Niño: there could be over 450 thousand deaths in the world, in the period June 2026-February 2027, due to the increase in temperatures linked to this phenomenon. The southern hemisphere will be most affected. Italy, which ranks 49th in mortality impact, is expected to face 780 additional deaths. According to the report, during the period in which the Super El Niño that began in June and is expected to last until spring will be present, average temperatures will exceed 1.2 degrees, a condition similar to what is expected to be permanently recorded in 20 years due to climate change. Additionally, there will be a 44% increase in extreme heat days compared to those expected in a normal year.
“The exceptionally high temperatures that much of the globe will experience during this El Niño event represent a postcard from the future,” the report reads. “Although they appear anomalous today, in a few decades they will become the norm.” The impact on mortality is enormous: between June and February approximately 451 thousand additional deaths are expected due to the increase in days of extreme heat. The most serious effects, as already mentioned, will be concentrated in the southern hemisphere: in the Sahel region alone, 66,800 excess deaths are estimated in the next six months compared to the average for the period 1996-2025. Almost half of the deaths (31,400) will occur in Nigeria. The impact is also heavy on Sudan which will have to face 17,500 additional deaths due to the heat, on Niger (10 thousand) and on Chad (8 thousand). In Southeast Asia, 19,400 additional deaths are expected across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 deaths in Indonesia. Other areas heavily affected in the coming months will be India (15,800 deaths) and Brazil (13,300).
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However, the balance could worsen: the increase in temperatures, in fact, could continue until June-July. "Short-term mortality projections indicate the direction we are taking if new investments in adaptation are not made", write the researchers, according to whom, in addition to acting immediately to "reduce the number of lives lost by tens of thousands", it is important to look to the future by implementing strategies to reduce the potentially much wider effects of climate change.
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