Warning of gas shortage in extreme cold in Germany

In Germany, Europe's largest energy consumer, the occupancy rate of natural gas storage facilities has fallen to historical lows, reigniting discussions on supply security before the upcoming winter period.

The German Gas Storage Initiative (INES), which represents gas and hydrogen storage facility operators in Germany, warned that there may be a natural gas shortage if the winter season is extremely cold.

INES announced that the occupancy rate in storage facilities is at 61 percent and described this situation as "a historical low level".

According to INES's new modeling, if the winter is extremely harsh, there may be a natural gas deficit of up to 6.6 terawatt hours on a monthly basis in January, February and March of 2027. The deficiency corresponds to approximately 1.5 days of total gas consumption in Germany during the winter months.

In a scenario with freezing temperatures, the difference between demand and available volume could reach up to 1.7 terawatt-hours on certain days in January.

This amount corresponds to approximately 40 percent of the average daily gas consumption in January 2026. The modeling is based on the assumption that an extraordinarily cold winter similar to the one in 2010 may occur.

On the other hand, INES also stated that such extreme weather conditions are unlikely and gas supply will remain safe at normal or moderate temperatures.

Call for state protection and legal obligation

INES demands that financial incentives be introduced to encourage the storage of natural gas, that the use of facilities be made legally compulsory, or that a gas reserve be created under state control.

INES, which includes 17 major operators including SEFE, Uniper and VNG, represents more than 90 percent of Germany's gas storage capacity. Operators also have a commercial interest in increasing facility utilization rates, as they generate income from marketing existing capacities.

Sebastian Heinermann, Director General of INES, said: "Our scenarios clearly demonstrate the importance of adequately filling gas storage facilities to ensure security of supply in Germany. Imports alone through existing pipelines and LNG terminals are not enough to cover high consumption, which peaks on cold winter days. Low storage levels pose a serious risk to security of supply. Germany needs a reliable, long-term framework that will make maintaining sufficient gas reserves for the winter economically viable and provide binding guarantees for this." he said.

On the other hand, the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), which regulates the energy market in Germany, evaluates the risk of a serious tension in gas supply as "low" for now, citing additional import opportunities, and argues that Germany is no longer completely dependent on achieving storage targets.