Dollar rises 1.46% and closes at the highest value in 15 months

The dollar soared this Tuesday (10), rising to close to R$5.60 and closing at its highest value in more than 15 months. The US currency rose 1.46%, pressured by higher-than-expected inflation in the United States, which reinforced the prospect of higher interest rates in the largest economy on the planet.

In the stock market, the Ibovespa fell 0.52%, following the negative movement of international stock markets. Oil fell more than 1%, still reflecting possible moderation by the United States in relation to Iran.

Numbers of the day

Commercial dollar: R$5,586 (+1.46%)

Ibovespa: 171,336.99 points (-0.52%)

Financial volume at B3: R$30.16 billion

S&P 500 (index of the 500 largest American companies): drop of 0.38%

Brent oil for January: US$ 91.49 (-1.17%)

WTI oil for December: US$86.04 (-0.93%).

Exchange

The commercial dollar closed the session at R$5.5860, the highest closing value since July 31, 2025. During the session, the currency reached R$5.6135. As a result, it accumulated an appreciation of 2.60% in the first six trading sessions of November, after an increase of 5.20% in October.

The movement accompanied the appreciation of the US currency abroad. The DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.55%, to 102.240 points in the late afternoon.

The pressure gained strength after the release of the United States consumer price index (CPI). Inflation rose 0.4% in October, above expectations of 0.3%. The core indicator, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, also above projections.

The data increased bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, could raise interest rates in December. The probability of an increase of 0.25 percentage points went from 84% to 88.2%. The chance of an increase of 0.50 percentage points, previously zero, reached 11.8%.

In Brazil, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) were also on investors' radar. The document pointed to higher inflation expectations and lower prospects for economic growth.

The Central Bank attributed part of the pressure on prices to supply shocks, including the rise in oil prices, the effects of El Niño, labor costs and the devaluation of the real associated with uncertainties about domestic politics.

Ibovespa falling

The Ibovespa closed down 0.52%, at 171,336.99 points. The index fluctuated between the maximum of 173,271.61 points, recorded in the morning, and the minimum of 170,569 points, in the afternoon.

The drop reflected increased caution in markets in the face of US inflation above estimates and the possibility of higher interest rates in the United States. The prospect of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy in Brazil, reinforced by the Copom minutes, also weighed on business.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (index of the 500 largest companies) ended the day down 0.38%. The negative movement followed investors' reaction to inflation data and the revision of expectations for US interest rates.

Despite Tuesday's decline, the Ibovespa accumulated an increase of 2.03% in November and an increase of 6.34% in the year.

Oil retreats

Oil futures contracts closed lower for the second time in a row. A reference for international negotiations, the Brent barrel for January fell 1.17%, to US$ 91.49. Traded in the United States, WTI for December fell 0.93%, to US$86.04 per barrel.

Prices were pressured by the appreciation of the dollar and signs of a possible reduction in tensions between the United States and Iran. Statements by US President Donald Trump, indicating that the country should not expand the conflict with Tehran, fueled expectations of diplomatic progress.

Signs of recovery in oil production in the Middle East and resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for international transportation of the commodity, also entered the radar.

* with information from Reuters