While the technical outlook for gold prices weakened, the failure to maintain permanence above the 200-day moving average increased the selling pressure. As the precious metal retreats towards critical support levels, Societe Generale announced both its technical outlook and new positions in its multi-asset portfolio.
200-DAY AVERAGE HAS NOT BEEN EXCEEDED, DECLINE PRESSURE CONTINUES
In Societe Generale's note, it was noted that gold had difficulty holding on above the 200-day moving average in its last recovery attempt. The bank stated that this outlook indicates that the downward momentum continues.
It was stated that the retreat may continue if gold cannot exceed the last peak level of around 4 thousand 315 dollars.
While the first level to be followed in the downward movement was 4 thousand 95 dollars, it was stated that the real critical region was the 3 thousand 960-3 thousand 940 dollar band, where the bottoms formed in June and July were located. It was noted that this region may be decisive in terms of medium-term direction, and if it falls below the band, the correction may deepen further.
SOCIETE GENERALE INCREASED ITS SHARE WEIGHT
Societe Generale also changed its positions in its multi-asset portfolio. The bank kept its gold weight at 10 percent and its general commodity weight at 10 percent.
While the share of stocks in the portfolio was increased from 55 percent to 58 percent, the weight of government bonds was reduced from 15 percent to 12 percent.
It was stated that there has been a significant separation between asset classes since the beginning of 2026, stocks and commodities showed strong performance, while bonds remained under pressure. It was stated that the bank's SGMAP portfolio provided strong returns during this period with its stock and commodity-weighted structure.
In terms of the coming period, it was evaluated that a portfolio distribution consisting of 60 percent stocks, 20 percent bonds and 20 percent commodities could provide a more balanced structure.
DOLLAR CREDITABILITY CONCERNS SUPPORT GOLD DEMAND
According to Societe Generale, the role of gold in portfolios is becoming stronger again. It was stated that geopolitical fragmentation and credibility concerns regarding the financial structure and currency of the USA increased the need for diversification in reserve assets.
It was stated that this outlook re-emphasized the search for protection against loss of value. It was noted that central banks reduced their exposure to US Treasury bonds while continuing their gold purchases.
In addition to the structural diversification trend, the expected decline in real interest rates to reduce the carrying cost of gold, the expected weakening of the dollar and investors' reorientation towards ETFs were also cited as bullish factors for gold.
It was stated that global gold ETF assets approaching the level of 3 thousand tons again confirmed the recovery in investment demand.
PREDICTION OF UNDER 5 THOUSAND DOLLARS FROM SOCIETE GENERALE
The bank believes that the uptrend potential in gold continues despite the short-term pressure in the technical outlook.
According to Societe Generale's forecasts, gold is expected to reach 4 thousand 750 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026, 5 thousand dollars in the second quarter of 2027 and 5 thousand 250 dollars in the third quarter of 2027.
The bank maintains its annual average gold price expectation at 4 thousand 500 dollars for 2026 and 5 thousand 125 dollars for 2027.
