Istanbul Technical University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Umut Uzer wrote for AA Analysis what the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections says about US-Israel relations.
United States (USA)-Israel relations were defined as special relations by then-US President John F. Kennedy since the 1960s. Israel, which is also perceived as the representative of the West in the Middle East, first procured weapons from Czechoslovakia, that is, the Soviet bloc, and then purchased weapons from France. In particular, the Dimona Nuclear Reactor located in the Negev Desert was developed with the support of France, and Israel managed to acquire nuclear weapons with its "strategic uncertainty" policy in the 1960s. Even though there was no US support for the nuclear program, bilateral relations reached the level of special relations with the sale of conventional weapons such as missiles and tanks and military support that started in the 1960s.
However, it should be emphasized here that the US's interest in Israel is based on religious sympathy rather than national interest. The Israel lobby, which established a sphere of influence in Washington through bilateral relations, was able to influence Congress especially while developing through institutions such as AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee). Therefore, it seems that both Republicans and Democrats in the USA are mostly unanimous in their support for Israel.
Palestine wind in the USA
Despite all these historical developments, in recent years the wind in America has begun to blow towards Palestine. Recently, it has been seen that the majority in American society, especially among Democratic Party members and Independents, has started to support Palestine more than Israel. On the other hand, just like right-wing parties in Europe, sympathy for Israel continues among Republicans. In other words, the sympathy for Palestine in the USA, which started especially after 2023, became even stronger in 2026, and thus, support for Israel does not find its place in society as clearly as before. At the same time, support for Palestinians among young people is also quite strong.
In light of all this, as a result of the midterm elections held in the USA on November 3, 2026, Democrats won the majority in both houses of Congress, namely the Senate and the House of Representatives. The sympathy for Palestine mentioned above is now even stronger among Democratic Party members. Rashida Tlaib, of Palestinian origin, who was elected to the House of Representatives from Michigan in 2018, and Ilhan Omar, who was elected from Minnesota the same year, won the elections by a wide margin once again in 2026. In addition to these two female Muslim politicians, who are known for their support for Palestine, the left wing of the Democratic Party is also known for its support for Palestine.
Abdul el-Sayed, who was elected to the US Senate as a senator from the state of Michigan, became the first Muslim MP elected to this wing of Congress, and the number of Muslim members in the House of Representatives increased from 4 to 6. In light of all this, it can be said that the Palestine issue now has an important place in the American public opinion and is seen as a problem of inequality, human rights and oppression not only by the Muslim community in the USA but also by members of other religions or those who do not belong to a religion.
However, it must be said that the Israel lobby and sympathy in the USA will not disappear suddenly, because while a part of the Jewish community living in the USA continues to support Israel, Evangelical Churches, with their influential communities, continue to defend Israel for theological reasons.
Israel as a deciding factor in US elections
Meanwhile, during the elections, US President Donald Trump announced that he was cutting military aid to Israel because this issue is now becoming a subject of criticism among conservatives in American politics. For the Democratic Party, a name that maintains its distance from Israel will be more likely to be nominated as a candidate in the 2028 elections.
Despite all these developments, it should be stated that the 2026 midterm elections will not change the government in the USA. Trump will continue to serve as president for two more years, but the US/Israel-Iran War, which was started with the encouragement of Israel in February 2026, has not received great support in America from the beginning. Additionally, inflation and diesel prices continue to increase. Trump already emphasized that the Republicans lost the elections for these reasons, and it turned out that the election support he gave to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not very effective. Although it is difficult to make definitive statements, it can be said that even if US-Israel relations continue in the coming period, the two countries will no longer be as close as before. Strong pro-Israel institutions in American society, namely the Israel lobby and Evangelical churches, will continue to support Israel for ideological and religious reasons. On the other hand, it is worth emphasizing that the consensus that has existed for a long time regarding Israel has now collapsed.
In fact, the academic and intellectual infrastructure of this was initiated by Palestinian academic Edward Said. The approach of placing Palestine within the framework of human rights through the oppressor-oppressed relationship, which started especially in social sciences and intellectual circles, increased sympathy for Palestine in these areas. On the other hand, following the massacres in Palestine and especially Israel's intensified attacks after 2023, Israel's actions have now begun to be defined as genocide on many platforms, especially in the United Nations system. Morally condemned, Israel found itself in a difficult situation even in its biggest supporter, America. It is clear that Israel will no longer find automatic support from the USA, but will continue to rely on its supporters in the USA.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict directly affected American politics, and a politician's approach to this issue, among other factors, began to affect whether he or she would be elected. It now seems very difficult for the candidates in the 2028 Presidential elections, especially the Democratic Party candidate, to be pro-Israel. This situation will require bilateral relations between the USA and Israel to be carried out at a more distance and based on national interests.
