A couple of months from now, Dan Lanning might look back at an Oregon season in which the Ducks fell short of all their primary goals. There's a strong chance they won't win the Big Ten, and there's a good chance they won't even reach the College Football Playoff, let alone win a national title.
And as Lanning looks back, he may realize that 2026 was his greatest season as a head coach.
Lanning's criticisms as a head coach have been consistent since he first stood on the sidelines at Oregon and watched his team get decimated by Georgia 49-3 to open the 2022 season. He's a great recruiter and motivator, but he's not a game-day coach. That's why his teams come up short so often in the biggest games when they can't just "out-talent" their opposition.
But if those criticisms are true, explain how Oregon is 6-3 right now after beating Ohio State 41-28 in The Horseshoe on Saturday.
Oregon's season on the brink
Everything that could go wrong for Oregon in 2026 went wrong. It started the season looking like a team that had read all the press clippings about how great it would be. The Ducks seemed to lack a sense of urgency in a close win over Boise State to open the season, and they suffered a shocking upset loss a week later against Oklahoma State.
The primary concern about Oregon heading into the year had to do with having two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They were internal promotions, not big-name hires. The concerns seemed well-founded, with both the offense and defense struggling to start.
Two weeks after the Oklahoma State loss, it looked like the season would truly spiral out of control. Dante Moore took a vicious hit while sliding and was knocked out of the game against USC. The Ducks rallied and won without him, but Moore hasn't played since and is out for the year. In his first start, Dylan Raiola and the offense turned the ball over seven times in a 17-15 home loss to UCLA. That loss led to Raiola, a high-priced transfer brought in to back up Moore and await his turn to start in 2027, being benched for Brock Thomas. Thomas struggled mightily a week later against Nebraska, and then it was Raiola coming in to lead a game-winning fourth-quarter drive.
Things seemed to have settled down. The Ducks were 4-2, but still had everything to play for. Then they went on the road to face an Illinois team forced to start a true freshman at QB due to its own QB injuries.
And Illinois won. The Ducks suffered their third loss of the season before the end of October.
The moment Lanning changed course
It was a perilous situation. There have been plenty of examples of teams that came into a season with high expectations and effectively quit on the season once things went south. It's become more prevalent in the transfer portal era, since not everybody in the locker room has the same connection to a program that they may have had a decade ago.
But Lanning kept his team together despite all the evidence that they were toast. He made the difficult decision to fire offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. It was an admission of a mistake, and one plenty of coaches have refused to make because pride wouldn't let them tell the world they messed up.
The following week, they found themselves down 14 points to Northwestern. Another opportunity to lay down. Instead, the Ducks fought back to beat the Wildcats 34-26. On Saturday, Ohio State came out of the gates hot and stormed out to a 14-0 lead. Another opportunity for Oregon to quit, and another offer denied.
It was 38-14 by the time Ohio State scored again. Ohio Stadium had begun to empty long before.
Now, all of a sudden, Oregon sits at 6-3 with a shot. It might not be a great one, but it's there. The Ducks are through the most difficult stretch of their schedule and will finish with home games against Michigan and Washington, with a road trip to 2-6 Michigan State in between.
The offense has looked much more comfortable since the OC change. The defense has had its act together for over a month at this point.
I don't know if Oregon will win out, nor do I know if it'll reach the College Football Playoff. I suspect it won't. But I've been more impressed by Dan Lanning as a head coach for how he's handled things when damn near everything that could've gone wrong did. You learn a lot more from failure than success, and Lanning has learned a whole hell of a lot in 2026.
Maybe one day the lessons of this season will help Lanning and Oregon accomplish the goals they aren't likely to accomplish this time around.
