Ammunition could prove to be the defining issue as mainland China’s defence industry appears to be operating at an elevated tempo

A potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait could see crossfire exchanged between two mobile rocket systems: the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars), and its mainland Chinese counterpart, the PHL-16, also known as the PCL-191.

Taiwan is set to receive all 29 Himars systems from its initial orders by the end of this year, with another 82 systems approved for purchase in a follow-on deal, bringing the planned total to 111. This does not include the US military’s Himars systems already deployed in the region.

Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is estimated to have deployed more than 200 PHL-16 systems.

The real question, however, is ammunition.