AMRO raises South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1%

By Kang Yoon-seung

SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- An economic surveillance organization in Asia on Monday projected South Korea's economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, revising up its previous forecast of 3.1 percent.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) made the assessment in its quarterly update report, without further elaborating on the reasons for the revision from its July forecast.

For 2027, the organization expected Asia's No. 4 economy to grow 2.7 percent, compared with its previous estimate of 2.2 percent.

Touching on inflation, the agency expected consumer prices to rise 2.7 percent on-year in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 2.6 percent. For 2027, the inflation forecast was revised down from 2.4 percent to 2.3 percent.

Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for South Korea to 3.7 percent, citing the country's robust exports.

The Paris-based organization's prediction marks a 1.1 percentage-point increase from the 2.6 percent forecast in its June report.

The OECD said strong exports and rising production would drive South Korea's economic growth this year, while a gradual recovery in consumption would continue next year.

In September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for South Korea to 3.2 percent from the 2.6 percent projected in July, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

AMRO, meanwhile, noted that a slowdown in AI-related demand could weigh on exports and investment activities in the region.

Rising energy, transportation and production costs in the aftermath of the Middle East crisis could also add to inflationary pressures, while climate change could lead to higher food prices, it added.

Other structural challenges for the Asian region include fragmentation and an aging population, the report said.