Dusseldorf. The DAX rose to more than 27,000 points for the first time on Thursday - behind this are strong balance sheets: The 40 DAX companies earned 87.6 billion euros in the first nine months after deducting all costs, 8.6 percent more than in the same period last year. This is shown by calculations by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) after the last four companies presented their quarterly financial statements on Thursday.
Eleven companies increased their net profits by more than 30 percent in the first three quarters. These include industrial companies such as Airbus, BASF, Daimler Truck and Siemens Energy, the pharmaceutical company Bayer and the financial stocks Commerzbank and Deutsche Börse. SAP, MTU and Heidelberg Materials also presented strong quarterly figures. The trend that began in the first half of the year continued in the third quarter.
“In large parts of the economy it is clear that the willingness to invest is increasing again,” says Henrik Ahlers, CEO of the management consultancy EY. Growth is now based on several pillars: energy, infrastructure, defense and technology are developing dynamically.
Ahlers looks ahead with confidence: “Investment programs and the AI boom are providing tailwind.” After strong quarterly figures, around a dozen companies have adjusted their targets for 2026 upwards in recent weeks, including the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas, the logistics company DHL, the healthcare group Fresenius and the consumer goods group Henkel.
The pharmaceutical and technology group Merck raised its forecast for the third time this year on Thursday. The reason for this is the high demand for semiconductor materials. Siemens achieved record operating profits before taxes and interest; On Thursday, the group raised its sales targets for the financial year that began in October.
In the previous quarter, analysts had raised their profit forecasts for 27 DAX companies, according to calculations by Commerzbank strategist Andreas Hürkamp. “In the medium term, the upward trend in profit expectations suggests further price potential on the German stock market,” says Hürkamp.
For the year as a whole, national and international analysts expect an average net profit of 121 billion euros for the 40 DAX companies. That would be nine billion euros more than in the previous year and the second-best result in the company's history. Only in 2021 did the companies earn a little more at 123.5 billion euros. The forecast is based on the companies' previous results, incoming orders and outlook.
In a five-year comparison, it should also be noted: BMW, Mercedes and VW are expected to only earn eleven billion euros in 2026, after 19.8 billion euros in the previous year and 50 billion euros in the record year 2021. The resulting decline of 39 billion euros will be almost completely offset by the other 37 DAX companies for the three car manufacturers. In the first nine months, BMW, Mercedes and VW together made a profit of 6.7 billion euros, after 13.3 billion euros in the same period last year.
There is no end in sight to the downward trend for German car manufacturers. Competition in China is intensifying, tariffs and trade policy uncertainty are a burden, and the conversion to electromobility requires high investments.
The overall DAX compensates for this slump in the once booming auto industry with a wide market breadth that extends across numerous industries. According to HRI calculations, 14 DAX companies are likely to earn more this year than ever before. These include Europe's largest software manufacturer SAP, Germany's largest defense company Rheinmetall, the construction group Hochtief, the insurers Allianz, Munich Re and Hannover Re as well as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.
The financial sector in particular supports the Dax. The drivers are rising interest rates, which are boosting business after the long period of zero interest rates.
For the export-strong DAX companies, which according to Handelsblatt calculations generated around 80 percent of their sales abroad in the past financial year, the nine-month balance sheets show four profit drivers with a view to 2027.
First profit driver: strong global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts real growth – i.e. minus inflation – of 3.4 percent for the global economy next year. At the same time, the inflation rate is likely to be 4.1 percent, the IMF predicts. This results in nominal growth for the global economy of a high 7.5 percent. The DAX companies are likely to benefit from rising prices with higher sales and profits. Analysts expect an average profit growth of 15 percent for 2027 compared to 2026.
Second profit driver: domestic growth. Germany is also growing again. The federal government follows the forecasts of the IMF and economic research institutes and expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1.3 percent this year and by 1.1 percent next year. This would be the first noticeable growth after three years of alternating between recession and stagnation.
Third profit driver: more optimism. Company bosses are becoming more confident. This is not only shown by the many recently increased annual forecasts of the DAX companies. In a survey of 1,400 company bosses by the auditing and consulting firm KPMG, 86 percent of managers expect growth in the next three years. That is 14 percentage points more than in the previous year.
Fourth profit driver: AI investments. Germany does not have any global corporations in the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry such as Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta or Microsoft from the USA. But AI is a big driver. Investments in data centers, networks and digital infrastructure support demand in several industries, from energy and building technology to semiconductors and building materials to software. “The German economy also benefits from this,” says EY expert Ahlers. "Data centers need power, cooling, network connections, concrete, chips and control technology. Many DAX companies are well positioned along this value chain."
In the third quarter, Hochtief benefited from orders for data centers in Asia, the USA and Europe. The construction group's incoming orders rose by 63 percent to 17 billion euros in the third quarter. With a total order backlog of almost 90 billion euros, Hochtief is mathematically at capacity for two years. According to the company, the order backlog in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization and technology increased by more than 90 percent compared to the previous year.
At the semiconductor specialist Infineon, investments worth billions in data centers are driving earnings, according to the company. Sales of chips for their power supply are expected to rise to four billion euros in the new financial year, which began on October 1st - after 2.2 billion euros in the previous year.
After net profit rose by 49 percent to 1.5 billion euros in the past financial year, analysts expect an average of 3.25 billion euros for 2027. Since the beginning of the year, expectations have increased by 34 percent.
Infineon high-performance processors are not installed in data centers. But the company relies on materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride. They enable semiconductors with higher power density and lower conversion losses. This is important for building AI infrastructures.
Siemens Energy is taking advantage of the world's growing energy demand in its business with gas turbines for power generation. In the past financial year, which also ended on September 30th, the company's net profit rose to 4.1 billion euros, after 1.7 billion euros in the previous year. The group has promised around five billion euros for the new financial year.
