Kubilius pointed to historic decisions, but also outlined a vision of the future of European security. Europe is becoming the center of gravity for world democracies, he emphasized, commenting on the breakthrough changes on the geopolitical map of the world.
One of the loudest topics of Ursula von der Leyen's speech was the announcement that Canada could become the first associate member and member of the emerging Security Council of Europe. This is not only a symbolic gesture, but also a clear signal that Europe is opening up to cooperation with key partners from outside the continent. Kubilius emphasizes that this is "beneficial for both Canada and us, but above all it symbolizes something more - global geopolitical changes."
New challenges for Europe
The Commissioner does not hide that the most important challenge today is security. The issue of Europe's defense readiness should be considered in three dimensions. The first is material readiness - weapons, production, finances. The second one is institutional readiness, i.e. how we organize ourselves. The third – political readiness – Kubilius enumerated.
What is new is the strong emphasis on institutional readiness. The doctrines, institutions and decision-making mechanisms that we created in peacetime are no longer adapted to the current situation and future challenges, warned the commissioner, pointing to the need for a deep reform of defense structures.
One of the most ambitious ideas is to establish a European Security Council. The idea, which - as Kubilius reminds - was first proposed by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel in 2017-2018, is today taking real shape. The Council is intended to be a response to the changing role of NATO and the shifting of responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe to European states.
Europeans will have to take primary responsibility for conventional collective defense, and the Americans will be left with a secondary role and nuclear deterrence, Kubilius explained.
Importantly, the new security architecture is to enable the integration not only of Ukraine, but also of Great Britain, Canada and Norway - countries with strong defense capabilities and valuable experience. This is a really big step forward, says the commissioner.
Defense against Russia
In the context of the hybrid war waged by Russia, the European Commission proposed the creation of a special "anti-hybrid playbook" - a set of tools to counteract modern threats. When we have a hybrid war against us, we must have hybrid defense instruments, Kubilius emphasized, pointing to the need to go beyond existing tools, such as sanctions.
Another novelty is the proposal to create a European security protocol, modeled on Article 4 of NATO, but based on Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union. Article 42.7 talks about the mutual obligation of Member States to provide assistance to a country that has fallen victim to military aggression, the commissioner reminded. However, the new protocol is to cover not only military support, but also broadly understood crisis assistance and mechanisms to mitigate the effects of the conflict.
Kubilius drew attention to Europe's enormous dependence on American military technologies - from satellite communications to command and transport systems. If Americans reduce their presence, we must build our own capabilities. It will cost about EUR 500 billion - he recalled the calculations of German experts. The Commission is already working on alternatives, such as the IRIS² satellite constellation and joint defense projects, in which it actively participates, among others. Poland.
There was also the issue of support for Ukraine. The European Commission proposes using unused funds from EU loans - up to EUR 20 billion - for joint industrial projects in the field of defense, such as the famous FREA anti-ballistic missile program.
