Anthropic faces sell-off in AI stocks, IPO valuation expected to halve to about US$1 trillion

Artificial intelligence (AI) model development giant Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) plan has been hit by the sell-off after the U.S. midterm election. People familiar with the matter pointed out that before the IPO is officially launched next week, potential investors are rethinking the company's expected valuation, believing that it should be set in the range of US$1.2 trillion to US$1.3 trillion, and some people even think it should be as low as US$1.1 trillion.

Bloomberg reported that the turbulent environment for technology stocks has actually affected Anthropic’s IPO prospects. People familiar with the matter said that in early October, some investors considering participating in the subscription estimated Anthropic's valuation as high as US$2 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history. However, after the financial report was released in October, the valuation was expected to drop to between US$1.4 trillion and US$1.5 trillion.

According to reports, Anthropic’s listing valuation was affected again after the Nasdaq 100 index plummeted 6.4% on the 5th and its market value evaporated by US$2.3 trillion. Sources indicate that discussions are ongoing and no final decision has been made yet.

Questions about the IPO valuation of Anthropic, the developer of the Claude chatbot, have intensified after the Democratic Party swept the congressional seats, causing data center settings to face higher regulatory scrutiny in the future and impacting the pace of AI expansion. The U.S. panic indicator VIX volatility index hit its largest one-day increase since December 2024 on the 5th.

Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings, said that $1 trillion may be a more comfortable valuation level, which is expected to reduce the risk of violent fluctuations after trading begins.

He pointed out, "I don't think we need the headlines of 'Oh my God! This is a trillion-dollar IPO', because the performance of the secondary market is actually more important. If there is a trend similar to SpaceX, that is, in the first few hours of entering the secondary market, the stock price skyrockets and then plummets. In the current environment, we really don't want this situation to happen again."

Anthropic can also choose to delay the listing, but Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said, "The real and reputational costs of delaying the IPO may cause more damage to the valuation in the long run, and if the market remains at current levels, the IPO may be completed at a slightly lower valuation and then move forward."