Tropical depression is forecast to enter the Gulf of Tonkin, potentially strengthening into a storm

On the afternoon of August 20, Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, said that at 1:00 p.m., the tropical depression center in the north of Hainan Island (China), the strongest wind was 49 km/h, level 6, gusting up two levels and moving west at a speed of 5-10 km/h.

The meteorological agency predicts that early tomorrow, the tropical depression will enter the Gulf of Tonkin and is likely to strengthen into a level 8, level 10 storm.

According to Mr. Khiem, the tropical depression is located on the tropical convergence zone, the axis of this band passes through the area between the southern Northern Delta and the North Central region. The system tends to move slowly, while the large-scale flow field and interactions with surrounding weather systems remain variable. Therefore, forecast models still have dispersion in trajectory, intensity and area of ​​direct impact.

The National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting offers two scenarios of tropical depression. First, the scenario has a 60-70% probability that the tropical depression, after entering the Gulf of Tonkin, moves slowly, strengthens into a level 8 storm, then goes north and makes landfall along the Northeast coast.

Heavy rain in the North then increased again from August 21, concentrating in the east. Cao Bang, Thai Nguyen, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Phong and Quang Ninh can expect heavy to very heavy rain.

The second scenario has a probability of 30-40% and is considered extreme in terms of rain. The tropical depression, after entering the Gulf of Tonkin and strengthening into a storm, may continue to move slowly west, land in the southern Delta and then weaken. At that time, the Northeast may have heavy to very heavy rain, peaking from August 22 to 25.

Mr. Khiem said that the scenarios will still change when the tropical depression goes deep into the Gulf of Tonkin in the next 1-2 days. Localities and people need to closely monitor developments and guard against strong winds, storms at sea and heavy rain in the North.

Since the beginning of the year, the East Sea recorded two storms. Typhoon Maysak formed in early July, reached level 9, gusted level 11 and made landfall in Mong Cai (Quang Ninh) on the evening of July 4 with winds of level 8-9, gusting level 12. By July 23, the tropical depression near the East Sea strengthened into storm Noul, then headed towards Guangdong (China) and did not directly affect mainland Vietnam.