Trump will go to APEC after the election and may be tougher on China

U.S. President Trump will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by China next week. The Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing may believe that Trump has been weakened by the defeat of the Republican Party in the midterm elections. However, thinking this may be a serious misjudgment. After the election, Trump may become tougher on China.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in the 2014 midterm elections, the ruling Democratic Party also suffered a setback. After the election, President Obama also went to Beijing to attend the APEC summit and conduct a state visit. Chinese President Xi Jinping believed that Obama's status was weakened, and he let Obama listen to him talk about China's history and governance for several hours. This time, Trump is also visiting his party after his party lost the election. Xi Jinping will use this opportunity to show China's modern face.

Trump "weakened"? China’s economy is far worse than in 2014

However, the situation between the United States and China today is very different from that in 2014. Matt Turpin, a National Security Council official in the White House during Trump's first term and a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution, said that back then, "Xi Jinping was confident that the United States under Obama's leadership would not confront China head-on." At that time, China's economy was still expanding at a rate of more than 7%, and the West was still trying to get out of the financial crisis. Washington still supported free trade with China, and Chinese leaders were in a favorable position. Today, China's economy is far inferior to what it was 12 years ago. Xi Jinping will also face the politically sensitive year of 2027. He needs to focus on handling the high-level transition of the 21st Congress of the Communist Party of China. The last thing he wants at this time is turmoil in U.S.-China relations.

China has been unable to fulfill its commitments under the Busan Agreement, and Trump has no incentive to make concessions

However, Xi Jinping still seems unable to resist using this bargaining chip, but judging from Beijing’s current actions, this card has been overplayed. Since Trump and Xi Jinping reached a trade truce agreement in Busan, South Korea a year ago, China has failed to fully fulfill its agricultural procurement and rare earth export commitments. It has also tightened restrictions on diesel exports before the U.S. midterm elections, increasing global energy pressure during Trump's politically fragile period.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer stressed to China last week the importance of fulfilling the Busan Agreement commitments, highlighting Washington's dissatisfaction. Turbin pointed out that China's broken promises may change the interaction between the United States and China before the Shenzhen summit. "I suspect that Trump feels that Xi Jinping is deliberately making him suffer in the midterm elections." If Trump really sees it this way, then he will not have much incentive to make concessions to Xi Jinping, including on the Taiwan issue.

In addition, Trump chose Miller, who has a strong stance on immigration policy, as White House chief of staff after the election, which also revealed that he prefers to strengthen the existing line rather than become more moderate.

Huang Renxun case exposed, it will be more difficult for the United States to relax technology exports

Turbin pointed out that the worrying thing about the current U.S.-China relations is that there are no moderate voices in China, only "hawks toward the United States, but no doves toward the United States." "The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party actually do not understand the relationship between the (U.S.) president and Congress." "They generally view the United States based on the Chinese system and think that the U.S. political system operates like China."

In other words, Beijing may view the midterm election results as an opportunity to force concessions from a weakened Trump. But this may be a serious miscalculation, which will encourage Trump, who was just hit by the midterm elections, to become tougher on China.

Turpin also expects that with the exposure of Huida CEO Huang Renxun's extramarital affair and the suspicion that he is a Chinese spy, it will be harder for Congress to relax controls on China's technology exports.