(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Xi Jinping and Trump are expected to meet again during the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting in Shenzhen from November 18 to 19. This will be the second summit between the two within three months, which is rare in Sino-US relations. On September 24, the two heads of state met in Washington and agreed to build a "constructive strategic and stable relationship."
There is no timetable for tariff reductions
After the Washington summit, the two sides agreed to continue cooperation on selected bilateral issues through the newly established trade committee. The White House said that the committee had begun operations in late September. According to the South China Morning Post, the trade committee is co-led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, and has clear responsibilities, leadership structure and meeting arrangements.
According to Reuters, under this framework, the two countries have each proposed a list of non-sensitive goods worth approximately US$30 billion and intend to grant more preferential tariff treatment, totaling approximately US$60 billion. The Chinese list covers U.S. agricultural products such as corn, wheat, meat, and dairy products, as well as aquatic products, wood, cosmetics, and medical equipment, but does not include soybeans, the largest U.S. export to China. The U.S. list mainly focuses on consumer goods such as Chinese toys, small household appliances, tableware, and holiday decorations.
However, neither party has announced the extent of the tax cuts and their implementation time. The White House also stated that China agreed to import at least 10 million tons of coal from the United States each year in 2027 and 2028.
Investment committee deadlocked
In contrast, progress on the investment committee announced at the Beijing summit in May has been slow. The South China Morning Post quoted sources as saying that due to political resistance to Chinese investment in the United States - especially investment in the automobile manufacturing industry - the mechanism has stalled, and talks in Washington in September failed to reach an agreement.
Currently, the negotiating team is promoting the institutionalization of the Investment Committee following the model of the Trade Committee and discussing a short list of projects in non-sensitive fields in the United States that China may invest in, involving electric vehicles, battery energy storage, and power equipment. However, sources believe that these areas still pose political and commercial risks to Chinese companies, and may eventually shift to the consumer goods field. One source said the "low-hanging fruit" had been picked and the remaining issues were "difficult" and there were "significant differences". Multiple sources believe that it is unlikely that China will make large-scale, long-term investments in the United States, regardless of the areas involved.
The battle over trade truce extension
Extending the trade truce is another key agenda item. The trade deal signed in Busan, South Korea, last year was extended by just two months at the September summit, to January 10, 2027.
The South China Morning Post quoted three sources as saying that both sides are using their respective bargaining chips - China's rare earths and the United States' jet engines and aircraft parts - to try to maximize their benefits when extending the agreement. China is "disappointed" that the extension is only for two months, but it also sees it as an opportunity to strengthen its negotiating position, especially on its Boeing aircraft purchase commitments; the United States hopes to take the opportunity to urge Beijing to expand rare earth supplies and increase agricultural product purchases.
During Trump's visit to China in May, Beijing agreed to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, but the deal has yet to be implemented. Sources said discussions were moving in a "positive direction" but an announcement during APEC was unlikely.
Sources believe that negotiations are likely to continue until the G20 summit in Florida, USA, in December. The Chinese Embassy in the United States said last week that it believed the two sides would "seek positive solutions" to further extensions through high-level economic and trade interactions before the end of the year.
Artificial intelligence: both cooperation and defense
Artificial intelligence is an increasingly prominent issue on the agenda of China and the United States. According to the Associated Press, after the September summit, the two sides agreed to establish a communication mechanism for artificial intelligence-related events and planned to hold follow-up dialogue before the end of November. Trump also said that the United States "will not step on the brakes" and "has no plans to open up to China" in the field of AI.
Beijing is also stepping up its defenses. According to Reuters, China’s Ministry of Commerce proposed on October 16 that it would impose export controls on 23 AI technologies involving models, agents and computing power clusters. However, the provision of services through APIs, websites and applications is not restricted. Companies such as Deep Search and Alibaba can still continue to expand overseas business. The comment period ends on November 15.
"The Diplomat" recently published an article pointing out that the existing Sino-US AI dialogue only involves security risks and does not touch on the economic issues brought about by the AI investment boom. The author of the article suggests that the two sides can take the opportunity of the Shenzhen APEC meeting to launch a "Track Two" AI economic dialogue led by think tanks and industry associations, and privately exchange red lines on export controls and market access.
